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Forecast Has Storm Scooting By Pinellas 30 Miles Off Coast

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 17, 2008

Updated: 08/17/2008 05:53 pm

Forecasters extended a hurricane watch north to Tarpon Springs as Tropical Storm Fay grazed the southern coast of Cuba and headed on a path that could take the storm just west of Pinellas County as a hurricane.

The forecast track for the storm shifted Sunday afternoon to take Fay over the Gulf of Mexico west of the Tampa Bay area on Tuesday evening with winds near 85 mph and close enough to possibly bring hurricane force winds to the coast.

The change in track exposes the Tampa Bay area to more a more serious storm surge threat than if the storm crawled up the peninsula east of Tampa as earlier forecasts predicted.

In addition, the different track would put the Tampa Bay area on the eastern side of the storm, where the winds are strongest and extend farthest from the center.

On the latest track, Fay would likely pass about 30 miles west of Pinellas at roughly 8 p.m. on Tuesday after crossing Cuba and going west of the Keys.

That would expose much of Pinellas and coastal counties to the north to possible hurricane-force winds of 75 mph or higher, and from Sarasota County north to sustained tropical storm winds of more than 40 mph.

The hurricane center expects winds of about 40 mph to extend more than 100 miles from the storm's center about the time it heads by the Tampa Bay area.

If the storm stays on this track, the state's west coast and Tampa Bay could see a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning as the storm's center moves north of Tampa and the winds begin blowing on shore.

The latest forecast path from the hurricane center takes Fay on shore near the Big Bend late Tuesday or on Wednesday at or close to hurricane strength.

The hurricane center said there is a fair amount of uncertainty how closely the storm will follow the forecast.

The center also said that, like Hurricane Charley in 2004, a small twitch in the path could make a big difference in where the storm strikes land.

Charley appeared bound for the mouth of Tampa Bay when the storm shifted slightly and made landfall in Punta Gorda.

Forecasters said the computer models remained scattered on Fay's exact track. Though the path takes Fay over water, only southeast Florida and the western Panhandle are out of the possible error in the forecast path.

The hurricane watch now covers the west coast from the Keys to Tarpon Springs, meaning hurricane winds are possible in 36 hours.

That puts Hillsborough, Pinellas, Monroe, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte and western Collier counties under a hurricane watch.

A tropical storm watch also was in effect for the southeast coast of Florida from Ocean Reef north to Jupiter Inlet, as well as for Lake Okeechobee.

Even if Fay stays offshore, there could be a moderate to high chance of the storm spawning tornadoes far from its center.

State Meteorologist Ben Nelson said to expect tornado watches over a large portion of the peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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