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Tampa Bay Area On Fay Watch

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By NEIL JOHNSON The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 18, 2008

Updated: 08/18/2008 12:34 am

Forecasters Sunday extended a hurricane watch north to Tarpon Springs as Tropical Storm Fay grazed the southern coast of Cuba and headed on a path that could take the storm into the western edge of Pinellas County as a hurricane.

The forecast track for the storm shifted Sunday evening to take Fay over the Gulf of Mexico and into Pinellas County, and just west of Tampa, on Tuesday evening, with winds near 85 mph and close enough to possibly bring hurricane-force gales to the coast.

The projected path exposes the Tampa Bay area to a more serious storm surge threat than if the storm had crawled up the peninsula east of Tampa, as earlier forecasts had predicted.

The new track puts the Tampa Bay area on the eastern side of the storm, where the winds are strongest and extend farthest from the center.

On the latest track at 11 p.m. Sunday, a slight shift to the east has Fay likely moving over the western part of Pinellas between 8 and 9 p.m. Tuesday after crossing Cuba and going just west of the Keys.

That would expose much of Pinellas and coastal counties to the north to possible hurricane-force winds of 75 mph or higher, and from Sarasota County north to sustained tropical storm winds of more than 40 mph.

The National Hurricane Center expects winds of about 40 mph to extend more than 100 miles from the storm's center about the time it heads by the Tampa Bay area.

If the storm stays on that track, the state's west coast and Tampa Bay could see a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning as the storm's center moves north of Tampa and the winds begin blowing onto shore.

Big Bend Landfall Expected

The latest forecast path from the hurricane center has Fay coming on shore near the Big Bend late Tuesday or Wednesday at or near hurricane strength.

Forecasters can't say for sure how likely it is the storm will follow the projected path. While some residents stocked up on generators, water and other supplies Sunday, others said they would wait.

Emergency management officials met to review the latest projections and their response plans. The Red Cross put volunteers on alert and started making preparations for setting up emergency shelters, if needed.

A decision to implement emergency plans is expected today. Emergency management officials in coastal counties said they planned to monitor the storm overnight and decide this morning whether closings and evacuations would be necessary.

Public schools and government buildings in the area are scheduled to be open today. Pinellas County officials are assessing whether students will start the school year Tuesday, as planned.

"Right now, if anything comes into play, it's not going to be until Tuesday," said Paul Latham, an emergency management coordinator in Pasco. "Really, it hinges on what the storm does after it passes over Cuba."

The timetable for making decisions is more immediate in other parts of the state.

Monroe County schools, government offices and early-voting sites will be closed today and Tuesday.

Schools also will be closed today in Miami-Dade and Broward counties; district officials said they would decide today what to do about Tuesday's classes. Broward's early voting locations also will close.

Tourists Ordered Out Of Keys

Sunday, tourists in the Keys were ordered to evacuate, and officials there were expected to open shelters for those staying behind. The Keys could begin to feel Fay's effects soon, and South Florida could see heavy downpours today, forecasters said.

Traffic was bumper-to-bumper on northbound U.S. 1 from just north of Marathon to Florida City.

Republican presidential hopeful John McCain canceled a scheduled fundraiser in Miami, where he could have raised close to $1 million, and presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama canceled a scheduled stop in the Tampa Bay area because of the storm.

Major League Baseball officials are monitoring Fay to see whether they will have to postpone the Rays' three-game home stand scheduled to begin tonight. Tropicana Field serves as a command center for St. Petersburg.

A small twitch in the path could make a big difference in where the storm makes landfall.

In 2004, Hurricane Charley appeared bound for the mouth of Tampa Bay when the storm shifted slightly and made landfall in Punta Gorda.

Forecasters said the computer models remained scattered as to Fay's exact track. Though the path takes Fay over water, only southeast Florida and the western Panhandle are out of the possible strike area in the forecast path.

The hurricane watch now covers the west coast from the Keys to Tarpon Springs, meaning hurricane winds are possible within 36 hours.

That puts Hillsborough, Pinellas, Monroe, Manatee, Sarasota, Lee, Charlotte and western Collier counties under a hurricane watch.

A tropical storm watch also was in effect Sunday for the southeast coast of Florida, from Ocean Reef north to Jupiter Inlet, as well as for Lake Okeechobee.

Even if Fay stays offshore, there's a chance the storm could spawn tornadoes far from its center.

State Meteorologist Ben Nelson said to expect tornado watches over a large portion of the peninsula tonight and Tuesday.

Reporter Todd Leskanic contributed to this report, which includes information from McClatchy-Tribune and The Associated Press. Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib

.com.

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