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Rain, Not Winds, May Be Main Threat From Fay

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 18, 2008

TAMPA - Tropical Storm Fay is expected to remain a tropical storm – but just barely -- until it reaches the Florida mainland about 8 a.m. Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center calls for Fay to have winds of about 70 mph, just below the 75 mph threshold for a hurricane when it makes landfall.

If today's late afternoon late forecast holds, Fay should swish past the Tampa Bay area sometime between late afternoon and early evening with the track taking the center over Polk County.

Winds up to 60 mph should blanket Polk County and may stretch through Hillsborough to Pinellas County when the storm is closest to Tampa.

But people in the Tampa Bay area should be feeling the impact of Fay with their morning coffee. Outer bands of squalls will probably be moving over the area in the morning with periods of heavy rain and gusty winds followed by a slight reprieve before more arrive.

The weather will just get worse through the day with the trains of thunderstorms becoming more frequent and fierce.

Fay will not dash through Florida, meaning the wind and rain will be with us for a while. The strings of storms will begin to thin and weaken through the night Tuesday, but its effects will linger into the early morning hours Wednesday.

Winds from Fay may not be daunting, but the storm could be a rain maker with 4 to 8 inches expected over most of west and southwest Florida. That prompted the National Weather Service to issue a flood watch from Hillsborough and Pinellas south through Lee County and east to Polk, Hardee, Highlands and DeSoto.

Anticipating heavy rain from Fay, crews from Tampa and Hillsborough County started pumping Monday to lower pond levels in North Tampa to avoid the kind of flooding that hit the area after Hurricane Frances in 2004.

If the center of Fay stays inland as forecasters expect, storm surge should not be a problem with the National Weather Service forecasting a surge of 2 feet in the Tampa Bay area.

That's because the winds circulating counterclockwise around Fay would blow offshore. The storm will be weakening and moving away when the storm heads north of Tampa Bay and those winds shift to blow onshore.

Since Saturday, forecasters at the hurricane center have had trouble with the path of Fay, moving the track in windshield wiper fashion to the east and west. Since early Monday morning, however, the track has twitched slightly but remained fairly constant.

Hurricane or not, Fay will keep thousands of students home from school and turned residents into refugees as the storm triggered evacuation orders in Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota and Hillsborough counties for residents in mobile homes.

Pinellas also told people nearest the coast and low-lying inland areas to evacuate.

Hillsborough, Pasco and Sarasota counties also asked residents near water to leave but kept the evacuation voluntary.

Government offices and attractions including Busch Gardens and Lowry Zoo will close while Fay moves up the state.

Drivers on area toll bridges and roads will get a free ride at 6 a.m. Tuesday.

Reporters Rich Shopes and Laura Kinsler contributed to this report. Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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