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Preparedness A Dish Best Served Always

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By TOM JACKSON

The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 20, 2008

Well. That sure was a whole lot of nothing. As looming emergencies go, Pasco has more to worry about come Tuesday's primary election day than it ever did from Tropical Storm Fay.

The weather event projected to put official and private preparedness to the test wound up straying on a course that meant, again, all that battening down and shoring up was energy ill-spent.

But for all whose preparations amounted to toasting The Weather Channel with another bottle of Miller Genuine Draft, belay those self-congratulations. Our public service obligation requires this disclaimer: Tedious as hauling in the lawn ornaments, securing the windows and stockpiling the family larder can be, wisdom remains on the side of choosing safety.

For all their expertise, scientific instruments and software, modern trackers have only a general idea where the storms are headed. Tropical storms - hurricanes included - are the meteorological version of knuckleballs. When a knuckleball pitcher is on the mound, catchers wear oversized mitts; similarly, when a big storm is on the radar, proper equipment is never a bad idea.

Still, the imprecise science of forecast tracks makes us doubt anew the efficacy of models behind human-induced climate change. If meteorologists can't fix, within 100 miles, the strength or whereabouts of a storm 24 hours from now, how can folks practicing in the sister science of climatology reliably project the global mean temperature within a half-degree in 2058?

But that's another column.

Hard Lessons And Irony

All Fay did locally was ruffle trees, spritz a little water, give government workers the day off and mess with the school calendar. In the annals of Pasco's natural disasters, Fay will be a footnote. We've seen bigger blowouts when Land O' Lakes hosts River Ridge in high school football.

At the risk of going hyper-hyper-local, Tuesday became the day when the heir apparent could not believe the goodness of life: No school! No storm! Woo hoo! It also was the day he learned the heartbreak of kite-eating trees. One moment it was soaring; the next it dived into the greedy clutches of an unforgiving Southern longleaf pine, evoking heartbreak.

And so it goes.

At mid-afternoon, about the time meteorologists had predicted Fay's effects would be most intensely felt, Pasco was dry and breezy and astonishingly hunkered down. An eyewitness survey of assorted east county golf courses, including but not limited to Silverado, Lake Jovita and The Abbey, revealed an astonishing absence of players willing to seek glory against the elements.

Not that golfers bear all the blame. Here came Tuesday, full of Scottish links bluster, and there was the pro shop at Scotland Yard, of all places, locked up tighter than an Edinburgh bank.

It's Mostly Guesswork

They say Fay isn't finished with us, that steering currents may drive the storm back across the state after it crosses to the Atlantic. In some models, forecasters' cone-of-wild-rump-guesses puts its southernmost track right back here between Saturday night and, oh, Labor Day. You never know.

In this, we must be like Chicago Cubs fans: ever alert, ever vigilant, ever open to the possibility that this year, or this storm, will be the one we've been preparing for.

Meanwhile, it looks like the drought watch is back on.

Tom Jackson can be reached at (813) 948-4219.

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