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Democrats Go West, Reach Into Republican Bastions

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By BILLY HOUSE

The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 21, 2008

Updated: 08/21/2008 12:45 am

WASHINGTON - Why Denver?

Why are Democrats holding their national convention next week in the hub of the Rocky Mountains rather than a traditional presidential battleground state such as Florida or Ohio, or some other large-delegate state such as New York?

After all, the last time a party held its convention in Denver was in 1908. That year, the nominee, William Jennings Bryan, a Democrat, went on to be handed his worst loss in three tries at the hands of Republican William Howard Taft.

The selection of Denver for this year's Democratic convention Monday through next Thursday is cast by some as a well-timed outreach to the so-called "New West" - in particular, the mountain states of Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, Utah and Idaho that have been taken for granted by Republicans, but may now be turning purple.

Region Approaching 'Swing Status'

With the nation's the fastest population growth and economic changes, including big influxes of Hispanics and professional workers, experts say this part of the country could flirt with being a key presidential battleground this fall, and almost certainly will be so in the years ahead.

"It's smart for one of the major parties to plant its flag in a region that is trending rapidly toward 'swing status,'" said Mark Muro, policy director for the Metropolitan Policy Program of the Brookings Institution, which released a report last month on the rapid changes enveloping the American West.

"It will be a few elections before it the region rivals Ohio and Florida as a presidential battleground," Muro said. "But it is a place with a new, vital economy. It's a place where the nation needs to build new infrastructure, a place of great social mobility, and to where tremendous numbers of new residents are being attracted to the possibility of a middle-class life."

The bulk of this new migration is moving in and around urban areas, such as Denver, Phoenix and Albuquerque, representing large pockets of new Democratic votes.

In Florida, the state's Democratic Party chairman, Karen Thurman, says the significant inroads Democrats have already made in the region can't be denied.

"We've always known that you've got to grow the battleground state map. And when you look at some of the recent Senate races in the West, and the transition from Republican governorships to more Democratic governorships, you're starting to see a transition," Thurman says.

President Bush nearly swept the region in his elections, taking all but New Mexico in 2000, and all nine states in 2004.

Today, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Montana and Wyoming all have Democratic governors, when none did just eight years ago.

In addition, Democrat Ken Salazar, a Hispanic, won a previously Republican U.S. Senate seat in Colorado in 2004. Jon Tester's election to a previously GOP-held U.S. Senate seat in Montana in 2006 helped swing the Senate majority to the Democrats, vaulting Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada to Majority Leader. This fall, there are good chances of Democratic Senate pickups in New Mexico and Colorado.

National pollster John Zogby is among those who see a big opportunity for Democrats in Denver next week, even if the city did need a bit of luck along with the cheerleading of Reid and others to land the convention.

Although New Orleans was thought to be the first choice of Democrats back in 2005 and 2006, that city dropped out. Three other cities did submit final proposals to host the convention, but one of those - St. Paul, Minn. - was chosen by the Republicans first. That left Denver and New York, with Denver emerging as the choice early last year after New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said his city couldn't financially support another convention.

Obama May Not Need A Florida Win

Zogby says that if presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama can win a state like Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico, he could be put over the top without winning either Florida or Ohio this fall.

"If you just look at the electoral map from '04 to the present, if Obama can pick up a red state, he can win. Colorado is one of those that can flip. It really is in play," Zogby said.

Latest polling in the state shows Obama and presumptive GOP presidential nominee John McCain in a statistical dead heat in Colorado, with a considerable percentage of undecided voters (10 percent). The state has nine Electoral College votes.

Not that anyone really thinks Coloradoans will automatically fall into the Democratic line this fall just because the convention is being held there, or that there will be a ripple effect in other Western states.

Holding the convention in Denver goes a long way to showing the state's residents that Democrats consider them important, Zogby said. Democrats are making Denver a focal point of their party next week, bringing with the event tens of thousands of conventioneers, media attention and an estimated $160 million to $200 million in revenue.

"They Democrats want to make a statement about going after the West, and that they intend to be competitive there," said Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter.

"I personally don't think it matters, though, where a party holds its convention. I think it's a worthless symbolic gesture," he said.

"But you've got to have it somewhere," he said.

And with that the case, Reid spokesman Jim Manley said Denver is a great choice, because "it's clearly the future of the Democratic Party."

Reporter Billy House can be reached at bhouse@tampatrib.com or (202) 662-7673.

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