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Fay Back On Land; Heaviest Rains Should Miss Tampa Area

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Published: August 21, 2008

Updated: 08/21/2008 04:20 pm

TAMPA - It looks like counties north of Pasco will take the brunt of Tropical Storm Fay through the rest of tonight and through Friday.

Federal help is on the way for other parts of the state already submerged by rain measured in feet.

President Bush this afternoon granted the request by Gov. Charlie Crist to declare a state of emergency for counties in Central Florida and on the east coast swamped by Fay's torrential rains.

Parts of Brevard County were drenched by 30 inches of rain Wednesday and water up to 5 feet deep flooded houses in Port St. Lucie.

Flooding in counties that are the next target for Fay is not expected to be as bad unless the storm stalls like it did Wednesday.

Fay is heading west at about 5 mph, slightly faster than earlier in the day.

On the path Fay is taking, the southern edge of the storm's center should pass through or just north of Levy County.

At that foot-dragging speed, the huge expanse of the storm will likely take a day or more to cross the state.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast takes the storm into the Gulf of Mexico or close to the Gulf by late Friday north of Cedar Key.

There are no wind warnings for Hernando, Citrus, Sumter or Levy counties where the southern edge of the storm should cross. Those counties, however, are under a flood watch until Friday afternoon.

Gusts in some of the squalls that will sweep the northern counties through the night could reach 50 mph, the National Weather Service office in Ruskin said.

If the storm reaches the Gulf, it could at regain at least the tropical storm strength it is expected to lose during its slog across north Florida. The hurricane center issued a tropical storm watch for the northern Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass.

Forecasters expect Fay to drop 4 to 8 inches of rain between now and Friday over the northern counties. The Tampa Bay area may not see much at all.

The presidential declaration frees the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide aid for the state. Though the president mentioned only Brevard, Highlands, Lee, Martin, Osceola, Polk, Hendry, Collier and Miami-Dade counties, Crist wants the federal help to be made available for the entire state.

The center of Fay's vast circulation made it ashore near Flagler Beach about 2:30 p.m. after spending Wednesday night over the Atlantic Ocean where the warm ocean water recharged the storm's supply of rain.

Its movement is more westerly than earlier forecasts predicted, which will take its center over Ocala and Gainesville.

Fay's center sprawls more than 60 miles.

Some of the heaviest rain today has been in Orlando, with 4 to 8 inches near Interstate 4.

Fay has spread its rain as far north as Hilton Head Island, S.C.

The hurricane center's forecast keeps the storm far enough north to avoid any direct effect on the Tampa Bay area, said Anthony Reynes, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

"It would have to make a movement very, very different than the hurricane center predictions, to have a direct impact in the Tampa Bay area," Reynes said.

If the storm follows the forecast, the Bay area will be about the only part of the state not directly affected by Fay.

Today and into Friday, some of the outer bands from the storm's massive center could spiral over the Tampa Bay area, but the weather service doesn't expect much more than an inch of rain from Fay's third trek across the state.

Sustained winds at Tampa International Airport this afternoon were from 16 to 18 mph with gusts up to 26 mph. In Brooksville, the airport reported sustained winds about 20 mph and the highest gust of 32 mph.

Reporter Catherine Dolinski contributed to this report. Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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