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Early Reaction To Weak Storm Is Justified By Surprising Fay

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 21, 2008

Fay, according to widespread news accounts, fizzled out - a better reflection of the news value of the event than a description of this remarkable storm.

Viewers could almost detect a hint of disappointment in some of the reporting. But in its own way, Fay is a disquieting and newsworthy event for one key reason: after it hit land, it got stronger.

Winds around Lake Okeechobee were nearer hurricane strength than they were earlier around Marco Island, where it came ashore.

Some trees and power lines went down, roofs and mobile homes were damaged and lots of landscaping got roughed up. Fay was no monster storm for insurers, yet relentless rains from the slow-moving storm did cause flooding where it wasn't expected.

What should raise eyebrows is how hungrily the storm fed off the warm lakes and swamps of South Florida. Instead of dissipating, Fay got uglier.

The experts who design the complex formulas that estimate risks now have a new factor to use to raise our insurance rates. If hurricanes can gain strength as they cross the state, no Florida town has a safety buffer on any side.

Fay's lesson confirmed what Hurricane Charley tried to teach us: All of us who live in Florida should consider ourselves coastal residents, not just the 80 percent of us who live in coastal counties. That means finding better ways to keep insurance affordable is everyone's problem, not just those who live in a flood zone.

We heard some complaining that Gov. Charlie Crist and local officials overreacted to Fay. Just the opposite is true. They did a great job in the face of great uncertainty.

Hillsborough County Manager Pat Bean made the right call to close government offices on Tuesday. She and emergency boss Larry Gispert were clearly prepared for the worst, and by inviting Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio to speak during the press conference, they gave all local residents confidence that everyone in the county was working and thinking together.

Two days earlier, Crist declared a state of emergency statewide, while Fay remained south of Cuba. The designation got the National Guard poised for action for a storm that was expected to hit Key West as a hurricane.

By late Saturday, the prediction included the possibility that Fay would hit Tampa as a hurricane on Tuesday night. As late as Monday, hurricane winds remained possible for Hillsborough. Closing schools and government offices was the only sensible thing to do.

As it turned out, Tampa barely got a drop of rain from the storm. Yet Wednesday afternoon, when it seemed stuck near Cape Canaveral, Tampa remained on the outside edge of the possible wind zone from the storm that wouldn't die.

Don't be tempted to personify Fay or scoff at its deficiency as a cyclone. The only thing certain about these storms is that they don't care and never lose. All the losses come entirely on the human side of the match-up, and our only defense is intelligent anticipation.

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