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Gustav Expected To Hit Haiti As Hurricane

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 25, 2008

Updated: 08/25/2008 05:49 pm

TAMPA - Tropical Storm Gustav is expected to reach Haiti on Tuesday as a hurricane, then hit Cuba by Wednesday before weakening over land.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Gustav traveling along the spine of Cuba from Wednesday through Saturday and losing strength as it goes.

However, a small change in the path to the north or south would keep more of the storm over water.

It is too early to tell whether Gustav, the season's seventh named storm, will affect Florida.

Forecasters said Gustav's winds should peak at 75 mph as it crosses the western side of Haiti and as it reaches Cuba.

The storm formed quickly today. Forecasters expected a hurricane hunter aircraft to find a tropical depression in the central Caribbean Sea. Instead, the plane encountered a tropical storm with winds near 60 mph.

The storm is moving along the southern end of an area of high pressure over Florida that is pushing Gustav northwest at 14 mph, and forecasters think the storm will keep that general path for the next several days.

Most of the hurricane center computer models show Gustav heading through the Caribbean and not into the Atlantic Ocean.

The models diverge widely on where they expect the storm to be by Friday and Saturday. Hurricane center forecasters said there is "substantial uncertainty" in their projected location of the storm by the end of the workweek.

Gustav's circulation became a bit more ragged during the afternoon, but forecasters think the disruption is temporary.

The storm's strength will depend largely on how much of the storm goes over the mountains of Haiti and eastern Cuba.

Some of the computer intensity models show Gustav growing weaker or maintaining its current strength, forecasters said.

Other models elevate Gustav to a Category 2 hurricane by Saturday.

Gustav is a compact storm, with its strongest winds extending about 40 miles from the center.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, meaning hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours.

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