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Gustav's Path Is Projected To Spare State

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By NEIL JOHNSON

The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 27, 2008

Updated: 08/27/2008 12:22 am

TAMPA - Gustav is forecast to leave Haiti and head toward Cuba today, taking a path to reach the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday as a major hurricane.

Even with Gustav days away from U.S. shores, the storm could begin hitting wallets by the holiday weekend. Oil prices started rising in response to Gustav's threat to Gulf of Mexico oil rigs.
Gasoline prices in the United States could rise by 10 cents a gallon ahead of the Labor Day weekend if Gustav continues on its path, said James Cordier, president of Tampa-based trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.

Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center will do little to ease the oil price jitters. The National Hurricane Center said that Gustav, which weakened to a Tropical Storm over Haiti Tuesday night, could strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane in the central Gulf by Sunday with winds of 120 mph.

Officials in Haiti blamed Gustav for one death, a man killed in a landslide in the mountain town of Benet in southern Haiti.

The storm's passage over the mountains of Haiti sapped some of its punch, dropping winds to 75 mph. The passage over land pushed Gustav below hurricane strength temporarily. Gustav had winds of 90 mph when it hit the island.

The weakening won't last long as the storm leaves Haiti and heads across the Windward Passage toward Cuba.

From then on, forecasters say, the storm steadily will increase in strength, passing off the southern shore of Cuba between Cuba and Jamaica.

From there, forecasters say, Gustav should cross the flat west end of Cuba to make its way into the Gulf.

For the next three days, Gustav is expected to follow a westerly course along the southern edge of an area of high pressure over Florida before beginning to curve around the high's western end and move toward the northwest and into the Gulf.

The latest forecast keeps the west coast of Florida out of the cone of possible strike zones, though the southern Keys remain in the threatened area.

Tampa Seems Spared

Each forecast update has ticked Gustav slightly farther from Tampa by Sunday, though it would not take much shift to bring the west coast back into the strike zone.

Gustav remains a fairly compact storm, with its strongest winds extending 25 miles, though forecasters say the storm will sprawl farther by the time it hits the Gulf.

Atmospheric conditions along the projected path of Gustav are not expected to hinder its growth, and water south of Cuba is extremely warm, forecasters said.

Intensity models generally show Gustav reaching the high end of Category 2 or low end of Category 3. Category 3 storms have winds of 111 mph to 130 mph, and Category 2 winds range from 96 mph to 110 mph.

The storm exploded from what the hurricane center on Monday afternoon thought would be a tropical depression. It became a hurricane with winds topping 80 mph, and it did so in less than 24 hours.

Hurricane Gustav barreled into Haiti about 1 p.m. Tuesday, toppling trees, dumping rain and sending global fuel prices soaring on fears the storm could become extremely dangerous when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil Prices Jump

Oil prices shot up $5 a barrel Tuesday after the National Hurricane Center predicted Gustav could enter the Gulf as a major hurricane. Prices of futures in natural gas, heating oil and gasoline also shot up.

Gustav's emergence into the Gulf could force shutdowns on the offshore rigs that account for one-quarter of U.S. crude production and much of its natural gas. Royal Dutch Shell said it could begin evacuating workers as soon as today.

In Haiti, Gustav's rainfall was a major threat. "If the rain continues, we'll be flooded," U.N. consultant Jean Gardy said from the town of Marigot in southeast Haiti.

Patrice Tallyrand, 43, fled with his family to a friend's home after Gustav toppled four trees in their backyard in the southern town of Kabik. "We had to leave the house before it got worse," he said.

Hundreds of people in coastal Les Cayes ignored government warnings to seek shelter, instead throwing rocks to protest the high cost of living in the Western Hemisphere's poorest country.

The U.S. military base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, had been expecting a direct hit, but later forecasts suggest the fiercest winds and rain will pass offshore. Base spokesman Bruce Lloyd said they were preparing for emergencies.

In Haiti, the brunt of the storm appeared initially to have spared the capital of Port-au-Prince, where businesses closed early and workers rushed home holding umbrellas, bags and boxes over their heads against the rain.

"I'm not too happy about it because I needed to get paid today," Darlene Pierre, 22, grumbled as she left a textile factory.

At Port-au-Prince's airport, stranded travelers mobbed the American Airlines counter, desperate to rebook tickets after the airline canceled all flights.

"I knew it was coming, but I was hoping to be out before it came," said Jody Stoltzfus, a 27-year-old missionary who had planned a visit home to Lancaster, Pa.

Haiti is particularly vulnerable to storms because so much of its land has been stripped of vegetation. Flooding killed more than 100 people in Haiti and scores in the neighboring Dominican Republic in 2007. And in 2004, Tropical Storm Jeanne killed some 3,000 people in the Haitian city of Gonaives.

In Jamaica, officials alerted shelters to prepare for possible evacuations today, and Carnival Cruise Lines diverted one of its ships from Montego Bay, Jamaica, to a port in Mexico, company spokesman Vance Gulliksen said. Other cruise lines were closely tracking Gustav's path.

Tropical Storm Fay killed 23 people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic this month. Nearly all drowned.

Fay's remnants delivered heavy rain and winds from Georgia to Louisiana. Floridians were still mopping up floodwaters from the storm. Fay made a historic four landfalls in Florida and dumped more than 30 inches of rain in some spots.

In Mexico, Tropical Depression Julio has dissipated into a low-pressure system.

Information from The Associated Press was included in this report. Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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