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Hurricanes Gustav, Hanna Could Soon Flank Florida

By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 28, 2008

Updated: 08/28/2008 07:10 pm

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By the weekend, Florida could be bracketed by hurricanes as one churns through the Gulf of Mexico and another meanders in the Atlantic Ocean.

Neither of the tropical storms Gustav and Hanna appear to be a direct threat to the Florida peninsula, though forecasters are highly uncertain of where Tropical Storm Hanna will go after Tuesday.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center kept Tropical Storm Gustav's track essentially the same today, with the Florida Panhandle still within the cone of possible strike zones.

Gustav rolled over Jamaica today with winds of about 70 mph and is expected to become a hurricane again by Friday, continuing to strengthen as it goes through the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf.

Gustav is forecast to be a Category 3 hurricane by Monday, when it should be well into the Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to maintain winds of about 115 mph until it reaches land.

Gustav's trek through the Gulf on its present track would not have a direct effect on Tampa Bay area weather but would create heavy surf and the danger of rip currents along local beaches Sunday and Monday.

The hurricane center forecast is for Gustav to hit somewhere between the Panhandle and east Texas, with Louisiana at the center of that impact zone, on Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

Forecasters stressed that there is a large possibility of error in the intensity, strength and speed of Gustav.

"The chances of hurricane-force winds within the next five days are essentially the same at each individual location from the Florida Panhandle coast westward through the entire coastline of Louisiana," the hurricane center says.

The Panhandle is in no condition to take the rain from a hurricane, even if there isn't a direct hit, said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist. The entire northern part of the state is sodden from Tropical Storm Fay.

Fay dumped nearly a foot of rain in some parts of the Panhandle and southern Georgia, leaving the ground soaked and rivers at flood stage.

"There would be some serious flooding," Nelson said of a visit from Gustav.

With Gustav moving north through the Gulf, the shores of the Tampa Bay area could be hit with waves in the 6- to 8-foot range starting Sunday afternoon and lasting through Tuesday, said Rick Davis, National Weather Service meteorologist in Ruskin.

Beaches in West Central Florida aren't as subject to rip currents as Panhandle beaches, but the track and size of Gustav could change that.

"It will be an ideal set up for strong rip currents," Davis said.

Tropical Storm Hanna, which formed in the Atlantic Ocean this morning from a tropical wave the hurricane center has watched for several days, weakened during the day but is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday.

It should head toward the northwest, then west. Forecasters think Hanna will slow through the weekend and into Tuesday as steering currents weaken it and the storm drifts. Any movement toward the state would be gradual.

A lot of Hanna's future depends on how it reacts to a trough expected to move off the East Coast.

Forecasters say the track of the storm is "riddled with uncertainty." They are equally uncertain about how strong Hanna will become, with the current forecast showing the storm reaching minimal hurricane strength then dropping slightly below hurricane strength by Tuesday.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.