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Presidential Race A Toss-Up In Florida,
Poll Finds

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By WILLIAM MARCH | The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 28, 2008

DENVER - The presidential race in Florida is locked in a dead heat, according to a poll out today, showing Barack Obama with a lead of a single percentage point.

Asked whether they would vote for John McCain or Obama if the election were today, 45 percent of the respondents said Obama, 44 percent said McCain and 11 percent said they didn't know or were undecided.

Considering the poll's error margin of four percentage points, that outcome is a statistical tie.

The poll also suggests somewhat surprisingly that among Florida voters, Mitt Romney as McCain's running mate would help him get more votes than popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

The respondents also were given a list of five possible running mates for McCain – Crist, Romney, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty – and asked whether each choice would make them more or less likely to vote for McCain.

For Romney, 32 percent said "more likely," 16 percent said "less likely," and 52 percent said it would have no effect.

For Crist, 17 percent said "more likely," 13 percent said "less likely," and 70 percent said no effect.

The poll suggested that Lieberman, formerly a Democrat who was John Kerry's running mate in 2004 but is now an independent, might do McCain more harm than good. The responses were 14 percent "more likely," 27 percent "less likely" and 59 percent no effect.

Neither Pawlenty nor Palin had any substantial effect.

The poll was done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for The Tampa Tribune and other news organizations. It included telephone interviews with 625 registered voters done Monday and Tuesday.

The poll's finding on running mates seems to contradict Crist's high job approval ratings as governor.

State Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer said Floridians "view a governor being able to affect their daily lives and a vice president not as much. … Floridians want him to remain their governor."

Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said the finding suggests Florida voters "prefer the first-term governor stay in Tallahassee and do the job he was elected to do less than two years ago."

The poll's four-point error margin means that either Obama's 45 percent or McCain's 44 percent could actually be four points higher or lower, Coker said. However, he added, numbers closer to those actually shown in the poll are statistically the most likely.

Coker noted that the calls for the poll were done after Obama announced his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate, and after the Democratic National Convention in Denver had begun. News about both events could have boosted Obama's standing.

But, he said, "I think it's fair to say the poll shows Florida is a very competitive state and might be at the epicenter of the presidential election again."

Hillary Rodham Clinton's Tuesday night convention speech could have given Obama another boost in public opinion, and Coker said his acceptance speech tonight likely will give him another. McCain will get similar bumps from naming his running mate, which he's expected to do Friday, and from his party's convention next week.

Only after that, Coker said, will polls give a more reliable picture of the race. "The numbers will be a little bit artificial until a couple of weeks into September."

Nonetheless, Democrats gathered at the convention, and the Obama campaign, were happy.

"It's a great showing — it shows Florida is winnable," said Judithanne Scourfield McLauchlan, a former Democratic campaign operative and now a political scientist at the University of South Florida. "If he wins Florida, the election is over."

Obama campaign spokeswoman Adora Andy noted that Florida has trended Republican recently, and that John McCain has been a well-known figure to voters for years.

"The fact that he can't close the deal with Florida voters shows they are hungry for change," she said.

But McCain campaign spokesman Mario Diaz attributed Obama's strong showing in Florida to a surge of Obama TV advertising — more than $5 million worth in Florida in June and July, according to independent analysts.

"Voters don't like what they see … an inexperienced candidate," he said

McCain, however, has also had television advertising visible in Florida through national and cable purchases, particularly during the Olympics.

Other recent polls have shown the lead in Florida seesawing back and forth in a race too tight to call.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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