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Crist Slips But Keeps High Rating
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Published: August 29, 2008
TALLAHASSEE - Gov. Charlie Crist's job approval rating has slipped among Florida voters, but more than half still like how he is running the state.
A new poll shows 57 percent of likely Florida voters said that Crist is doing a good or excellent job as governor. That's down from 61 percent in November and 70 percent in June 2007.
"He's still holding pretty strong, though," said Lance deHaven-Smith, political scientist at Florida State University. "With people out of work and housing prices falling, it's surprising that he's held on to that level of popularity."
The results came from Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which surveyed 625 likely Florida voters between Aug. 25 and 26.
The same poll shows an anti-gay marriage initiative supported by 57 percent, three percentage points away from the 60 percent approval it must garner from voters in November to become law. Another proposal to reform the tax system appeared in deeper trouble, polling at less than 40 percent.
Within Crist's own party, his rating has increased from 63 percent to 71 percent. But it has plummeted among Democrats from 58 percent to 47 percent and among Independents from 62 percent to 49 percent.
"As Florida's economy continues to be in recession, as we continue to lose jobs and see record home foreclosures, people are waking up to the fact that Charlie Crist is not providing the leadership Florida needs," said Eric Jotkoff, state Democratic Party spokesman.
Among other issues that may be influencing Crist's poll numbers is his turnabout stance on oil drilling. Once a staunch opponent, Crist changed his position this summer when he agreed with Republican presidential candidate John McCain's proposal to lift the federal ban and leave the decision to the states.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows 61 percent of Florida voters supporting drilling. But that comes disproportionately from Republicans, 86 percent of whom approve of the idea. Fifty-one percent of Democrats oppose it.
'Empty-Chair Charlie'
Most politicians would envy Crist's current ratings, said Darryl Paulson, political scientist at the University of South Florida and a Crist supporter. But his slippage suggests that Crist's attention to national politics and frequent travel out-of-state this summer may have grated on Floridians, especially given the economic problems at home.
Jim Greer, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said state Democrats have painted a "false illusion that the governor is not engaged in governing," with their increasingly partisan "empty-chair Charlie" campaign against him.
Had Crist not begun his term with such record-high approval, Greer said, "the conversation would be that his approval rating in Florida is very high."
Anti-Gay Marriage Proposal
Backers of the Florida Marriage Protection Act are within sight of victory, the poll showed.
Per the ballot summary, Amendment 2 "protects marriage as the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife and provides that no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized." Republicans showed the most support - 77 percent - while 53 percent of Democrats opposed it.
Statewide approval is likely going to drop, said Damien Filer, political director for Progress Florida, which opposes the amendment.
The first thing people hear about ballot proposals is from the proponents, who frame it in a way that sounds like a good idea, said Filer, who has worked on ballot initiative campaigns for the past four election cycles. "It takes quite a while for the other side" to get its message out, and it tends to focus on the final weeks before the election.
John Stemberger, a lawyer leading the charge in favor of the proposal, noted that most marriage amendments in other states have passed with higher approval rates than pre-election polls had suggested.
The two camps continue to argue over the effect the proposal would have. Opponents argue that Florida statute already forbids gay marriage in four different places; the true effects, Filer said, would be felt by seniors and others in relationships who choose not to marry to preserve health care or Social Security benefits.
"People really misunderstand what the issue is," Filer said.
Stemberger called the argument outright "fraud."
There is no relationship between a state Constitutional statute and the federal Social Security code, he said, and the proposed amendment would not affect domestic partner agreements establishing visitation and health care decision-making rights for couples. The amendment, he said, would protect the statutory ban on gay-marriage from being overturned.
Stemberger said he has expected a close contest all along.
"Every vote, every dollar spent and every volunteer hour donated is going to make an extraordinary difference."
Tax Swap In Peril
It remains far less clear how the tax-swap plan on the ballot will fare. Statewide, just 39 percent said they would vote for Amendment 5; 33 percent said they will not, and a whopping 28 percent were undecided.
"It's in big trouble," deHaven-Smith said. "You tend to expect a tax reduction proposal to have overwhelming support, at least at first blush; then as details come in, that support may drop off."
It will be hard to convince voters who already are skeptical to support the plan, he said.
The most complex proposal on the ballot, Amendment 5 will have to pass muster with the state Supreme Court before it can reach the ballot. Education and business groups have challenged the plan in court on grounds that it is misleading.
They await a final decision by the high court, which will hear arguments Sept. 3.
Amendment 5 would wipe out about 25 percent of property taxes by eliminating the portion the state requires to pay for public schools. Lawmakers would have to restore the lost money for schools somehow - possibly as much as $11 billion - for one year. Opponents charge that will necessitate substantial tax increases.
After the first year, lawmakers would decide how, and how much, the state would contribute to schools.
The plan comes from the state Taxation and Budget Reform Commission, chaired by former House Speaker Allan Bense. Thursday, Bense accused the press of slanting their coverage against the plan.
Bense said the plan will force reforms that election politics and special-interest lobbies would otherwise prevent.
"The only way to really reform the system is if the Legislature says that because of a Constitutional amendment, we have to look at this now - we're forced to look at this," he said.
Senate Finance and Tax chairman Mike Haridopolos said he will continue fighting the measure on the assumption that it appears on the ballot.
But he was pleased by Thursday's poll results.
"The more people hear about it, the less they like it," he said.
Reporter Catherine Dolinski can be reached at (850) 222-8382 or cdolinski@tampatrib.com.
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