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Forecasters Expect More Chill And Less Rain This Winter

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 3, 2008

TAMPA - You might see more of the chilly weather the next two months if this winter follows the trend forecasters expect.

We'll probably also see even less rain than normal through February.

We've already seen the 18th coldest November on record in Tampa, with the average morning low temperatures more than 5 degrees below normal. Records for Tampa go back to 1896.

Meteorologists at the Ruskin National Weather Service office expect December and January to be cooler than normal, with February warming quickly.

Though the calendar doesn't say it's winter, meteorologists consider December through February to be winter, meaning we're already a couple days into the season.

Water temperatures half the globe away will play a major role in how the winter's weather turns out. This year, water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are normal, meaning, there is no La Niña or El Niño.

Both have a significant effect on winters in West Central Florida.

Past winters with conditions in the Pacific similar to this year's tended to follow the same pattern of starting cooler than normal and with a February that gets quickly warmer, said weather service meteorologist Paul Close.

"Most Februarys it tends to flip to 4 or 5 degrees above normal," he said.

Such a swing could mean daytime temperatures in February in the high 70s, Close said.

Even with temperatures below normal, freezes are less common in winters with the same conditions in the Pacific, and the freezes tend to come from early December through the middle of January.

Looking at rainfall for winters with similar climate conditions back to 1950, rain in the Tampa Bay area tends to be from 0.5 to 1.5 inches below normal from November through February.

November rainfall at Tampa International Airport was nearly 1 inch below normal, and it was the 38th driest November on record. Only the 0.28 of an inch that fell on Sunday kept the month from being among the 10 driest Novembers.

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