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Martinez Won't Seek Re-Election To Senate

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By WILLIAM MARCH

wmarch@tampatrib.com

Published: December 3, 2008

TAMPA - Florida's Republican U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez announced Tuesday that he won't run for re-election when his first term ends in 2010, setting off what's likely to be a political donnybrook to replace him.

Within hours after his announcement Tuesday, a score of politicos including some of the state's biggest names - from former Gov. Jeb Bush to state Chief Financial Office Alex Sink and even Gov. Charlie Crist - were being said by friends or allies to be eying the race.

Martinez, who hasn't always seemed enthusiastic about his Senate career, said he's leaving it because he never wanted to be a lifelong politician and wants to spend more time with his family.

He said polls suggesting he had low voter approval ratings and could face a tough re-election bid were not a factor.

"I've faced much stronger odds in my personal and political life," he told reporters in Orlando. "My decision is not based on re-election prospects, but on what I want to do in my personal life in the next eight years.

"The inescapable truth for me is that the call to public service is strong, but the call to home is even stronger."

The retirement of Martinez, the nation's first Cuban-American senator, will deal a setback to the Republican Party's efforts to enhance its relationship with the nation's growing Hispanic minority.

It could also make it tougher to prevent Democrats from obtaining or holding a 60-vote "supermajority" in the Senate.

Without question it will create a rare and attractive political plum: an open U.S. Senate seat, with no incumbent running for re-election.

Such an opportunity, which can catapult the winning candidate onto the national political stage, comes around only once every 20 years or so in any one state, said University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson.

That's sure to attract big crowds of candidates from both parties - unless the biggest political heavyweights, such as Bush, Crist or Sink, enter the race. They could scare off competition from within their own parties.

"You have both sides waiting for the heavyweights to make up their minds," said Tallahassee Republican political consultant Cory Tilley. If either party gets its heavyweight candidate into the race, he said, it will have an advantage: no divisive primary.

Both national parties are sure to devote maximum effort to controlling the seat as they battle for dominance in the nation's fourth-largest state, where Democrats hope to overcome the GOP's decade-long ascendancy, said Jennifer Duffy, congressional analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political report.

"It quickly becomes one of the premier races in the country, maybe the premier race in the country, in 2010, and probably extremely expensive," she said, estimating the race is likely to cost $25 million or more on both sides.

With Georgia Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss' win Tuesday in a runoff, Democrats hold 58 Senate seats to 41 for the Republicans, and one now being decided in a recount.

In 2010, 34 regularly scheduled Senate races and two or possibly three special Senate elections will be held nationwide.

Since winning her seat as chief financial officer in 2006 Sink has been viewed as the state's top Democratic electoral prospect.

A longtime Tampa resident and wife of Democratic fundraiser and former gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride, she has been widely viewed as a potential candidate for governor or the Senate, either against Crist or Martinez in 2010 or to replace Crist in 2014.

Legislative Versus Executive

A former high-level banking executive, Sink has said often that she considered herself more suited to an executive position such as governor than a legislative position, and that she wasn't eager to run against a popular incumbent.

But she's been subject to pressure from her own friends and allies to advance the Democratic cause in Florida by seeking the governor's office or the Senate seat, either of which could help the party regain the control of the state that it lost in the 1990s.

Tuesday's announcement followed speculation about whether Martinez would run for re-election.

Recent polls have shown him with approval of 40 percent or less of the state's registered voters, at least in part because his support for a 2006 immigration reform effort angered conservative members of his own party.

Both Sink and Martinez have been under close media scrutiny and political pressure to announce their intentions, so that other potential candidates could make their own decisions.

On Monday and on Tuesday morning, prior to Martinez's announcement, close associates of Sink leaked to Florida political reporters that she planned to announce she would run for re-election to her Cabinet seat in 2010, and wouldn't run against Martinez.

But following the Martinez announcement, a Sink spokeswoman told the Tribune, "I spoke too soon," and said Sink would make no announcement about her political future Tuesday. That left open the possibility of a Senate race.

Well-Knowns, Lesser-Knowns

Bush has also been considered an unlikely candidate for the seat - like Sink, he has said he preferred executive to legislative work as well.

But despite that, a close associate of the former governor who had been in contact with him Tuesday said Bush will be seriously considering the race.

Neither could be reached for comment directly, and their political allies didn't want to speak for them publicly.

Even Crist, who gave an evasive answer when reporters asked him about the subject Tuesday, is considered a possible candidate - if the Senate seat seemed likely to provide a better platform in the future for his own national political ambitions.

If those big names don't enter the race, a crowd of somewhat lesser-known candidates will.

Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, also considered a future statewide Democratic electoral prospect, didn't rule it out Tuesday. She said she has no plans to run, but added, "That seat is very winnable for a Democrat. A good solid candidate would have a great shot at an open seat, given today's political environment."

State Attorney General Bill McCollum, who ran for Senate seats in 2000 and 2004, said he's also looking at this race.

But numerous other Congress members and legislators of both parties either didn't rule it out or said they were interested. They included Democrats U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd of Monticello, state Sen. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach; and Republicans U.S. Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite of Brooksville, U.S. Rep. Adam Putnam of Bartow and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami.

Martinez, 62, a trial lawyer, came to Florida from Cuba as a teenage refugee from the Castro regime, and was later joined by his parents. He was elected Orange County mayor in 1998, then was tapped by incoming President George W. Bush in 2000 as secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

In 2004, he won his Senate seat, narrowly defeating Betty Castor of Tampa. At Bush's request, he served as chairman of the national Republican Party for 10 months in 2007.

He and his wife, Kitty, have three grown children.

Paulson, a Republican, said Martinez's retirement will have "a dismal impact" on the party.

"It comes at precisely a time when the Republicans realize their poor showing among Hispanic voters," he said.

But, he said, by the time of the election, the current anti-Republican political mood could change.

Tribune Reporter John Allman contributed to this report. Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.

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