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Tampa Should Brace For A Cooler, Drier Winter

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By NEIL JOHNSON

njohnson@tampatrib.com

Published: December 4, 2008

TAMPA - You might see more chilly weather in the next two months if this winter follows the trend forecasters expect.

You'll probably also see less rain than normal through February.

Last month was the 18th coldest November on record in Tampa, with the average morning low temperatures more than 5 degrees below normal. Records for Tampa go back to 1896.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in Ruskin expect December and January to be cooler than normal, with February warming quickly.

Though the calendar doesn't say so, meteorologists consider December to February to be winter.

Water temperatures half the globe away will play a major role in the winter weather. This year, temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are normal, meaning, there is no La Nina or El Nino. Both have a significant effect on winters in West Central Florida.

Past winters with Pacific conditions similar to this year's tended to follow the same pattern of starting cooler than normal and quickly warming in February, said weather service meteorologist Paul Close.

"Most Februarys it tends to flip to 4 or 5 degrees above normal," he said.

Such a swing could mean daytime temperatures in February in the high 70s.

Even with temperatures below normal, freezes are less common in winters with the same conditions in the Pacific.

November rainfall at Tampa International Airport was nearly an inch below normal, and it was the 38th-driest November on record. Only the 0.28 inch that fell Sunday kept the month from being among the 10-driest Novembers.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731.

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