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College Football Bowl Breakdown

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By JOEY JOHNSTON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 7, 2008

Staff writer Joey Johnston offers analysis and a prediction on the 34 bowl games.

EAGLE BANK BOWL

The Skinny: Leading things off is a Wake Forest team that had designs on winning the ACC and a Navy squad that beat three bowl teams – Rutgers, Air Force and … Wake Forest? Yes, this is a rematch, something bowls usually try to avoid. Navy beat Wake 24-17 during the regular season. Why are they playing again? Maryland was slotted for this ACC spot, but asked out because of its pre-Christmas exams. So we get the rematch, and Maryland heads to the blue field in Boise, Idaho. Got it?

The Prediction: Wake Forest 24, Navy 17.

NEW MEXICO BOWL

The Skinny: Fresno State has a long-standing reputation as a giant killer. This Colorado State team is not, um, gigantic, so we'll go with the Bulldogs here.

The Prediction: Fresno State 35, Colorado State 10.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL

The Skinny: When we last checked in at Tropicana Field, the Rays were playing the Phillies in the World Series. Now it's college football. USF's presence should give the event a bit of local buzz. The Bulls, of course, had designs on something much bigger, but went 2-5 down the stretch.

The Prediction: South Florida 21, Memphis 17.

LAS VEGAS BOWL

The Skinny: BYU had the bad luck of playing in the Mountain West, where Utah (12-0) and TCU (10-2) also reside. Those were BYU's only defeats. So on another year, perhaps, the Cougars could've been a BCS-buster. Not this time. They get Arizona, which had its first winning season since 1998 and desperately needed to show some improvement under Coach Mike Stoops.

The Prediction: Brigham Young 35, Arizona 30.

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

The Skinny: Troy had a very respectable season – losing against Ohio State (28-10), Oklahoma State (55-24), Louisiana-Monroe (31-30) and LSU (40-31, after surrending a huge second-half lead). Southern Miss, under former Florida assistant Larry Fedora, needed to win its last four games just to qualify for the postseason.

The Prediction: Troy 23, Southern Miss 16.

POINSETTIA BOWL

The Skinny: We salute whoever conceived this matchup. This is a game we will watch – eagerly. TCU's only losses were against Oklahoma (35-10) and Utah (13-10). Boise State is one of two remaining unbeaten teams (along with Utah) and it will remain a curiosity as to how it will do on a high national level. A game against tough TCU is a nice proving ground.

The Prediction: Boise State 31, TCU 24.

HAWAII BOWL

The Skinny: What's wrong with this picture? The Fighting Irish struggle to a .500 record with their best win coming against Navy (barely). Coach Charlie Weis remains under fire. USC toys with Notre Dame, which barely makes a handful of first downs. And the Irish get a reward? A trip to Hawaii? Wow.

The Prediction: Hawaii 32, Notre Dame 17.

MOTOR CITY BOWL

The Skinny: FAU coach Howard Schnellenberger has seen a lot and done a lot in his football career. But spending Christmas in Detroit? That's a new one. The Owls might gather around to be warmed by the heat of Schnellenberger's pipe. But Schnellenberger and his Owls are delighted to get this chance after winning last season's New Orleans Bowl. Owls QB Rusty Smith has the look of an NFL prospect. Central Michigan gave Ball State its biggest test (31-24) in the regular season.

The Prediction: Central Michigan 33, Florida Atlantic 17.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL

The Skinny: In two of the last three seasons, West Virginia won BCS bowl games. This season was supposed to be another BCS bowl trip, but the Mountaineers couldn't win the big games. Still, senior QB Pat White is dangerous as ever and he's closing a distinguished career. North Carolina is a definite team on the rise in the ACC, and it will be fascinating to see how the Tar Heels defend the Mountaineers.

The Prediction: West Virginia 27, North Carolina 23.

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

The Skinny: Is that you down there, Bobby Bowden? The Seminoles, at times, looked like the ACC's best team, but they couldn't close the deal when it really mattered. Still, Bowden would love to have a nine-win team, something to build upon, after back-to-back finishes of 7-6. The Seminoles look like they have a keeper in sophomore QB Christian Ponder. Wisconsin was supposed to be much better, but it couldn't hang with the Big Ten's elite teams.

The Prediction: Florida State 30, Wisconsin 24.

EMERALD BOWL

The Skinny: Miami's program looked to be turning a corner – the ACC Coastal Division was there for the taking – but the Hurricanes instead ran into the wall. After a two-game losing streak to finish the regular season, their reward is the most lengthy bowl trip in program history. It's a matchup against California, a Pac-10 team, at a baseball stadium that normally hosts the San Francisco Giants. Weird stuff. But it's another life experience for UM redshirt freshman QB Robert Marve. If UM's defense shows up, the Hurricanes can finish on a positive note. If not, forget it.

The Prediction: Miami 27, California 24.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

The Skinny: What's up with this matchup? Well, the SEC and Big 12 could not fill their bowl slots, so Shreveport had to look elsewhere. It got an intriguing WAC vs. MAC duel. The local Crawfish Festival should be the best ever – with a whole new array of fans. The game itself? Not so much.

The Prediction: Louisiana Tech 32, Northern Illinois 26.

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL

The Skinny: Call it the Lazarus Bowl. Rutgers was once 1-5. N.C. State began 2-6, including a 41-10 home loss to USF. Then … down-the-stretch magic. Rutgers QB Mike Teel has been terrific. Since N.C. State started playing freshman QB Russell Wilson, who became the All-ACC player at his position, the Wolfpack have been a different team. This will be a very enjoyable game.

The Prediction: N.C. State 24, Rutgers 20.

ALAMO BOWL

The Skinny: Northwestern is steamed that it didn't get an invitation to the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day (especially because it won at Iowa, 22-17). But the Wildcats must turn their attention to Missouri, which entered the season as a top 10-level team, then slumped badly. The Tigers still have QB Chase Daniel. And in a one-game situation, he's difficult to stop. Northwestern, though, has more incentive.

The Prediction: Northwestern 41, Missouri 24.

HUMANITARIAN BOWL

The Skinny: Maryland had the ACC Atlantic Division fate in its hands, but lost its final two regular-season games, including a hideous 37-3 home defeat against Florida State. Nevada had an up-and-down season, but won three of its last four games.

The Prediction: Nevada 30, Maryland 20.

TEXAS BOWL

The Skinny: Pretty nice under-the-radar matchup for the five people who get the NFL Network (OK, 15 people). Rice has QB Chase Clement (41 TDs, five games with at least five TD passes), but some major defensive issues (allowing 34.9 points per game). Western Michigan had a nice season, including a 34-28 overtime win against Buffalo, the eventual MAC champion.

The Prediction: Rice 45, Western Michigan 38.

HOLIDAY BOWL

The Skinny: Oregon comes in with a three-game winning streak and looks like a team that nobody wants to play (its losses were to Boise State, USC and California). Oklahoma State had the misfortune of living in the Big 12 South, where it lost to Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. This could be the most entertaining game of the bowl season.

The Prediction: Oklahoma State 50, Oregon 47.

ARMED FORCES BOWL

The Skinny: Houston recovered from a 1-3 start, including a 31-28 loss to Air Force (yep, it's another rematch). In that game, Air Force ran 71 times and didn't complete a pass. That's how Air Force rolls (or doesn't roll, when it falls behind). How can you pick against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl?

The Prediction: Air Force 32, Houston 29.

SUN BOWL

The Skinny: When the season began, Pittsburgh coach Dave Wannstedt was on the hot seat. Now he's coaching a red-hot team. The Panthers made a run at the Big East title and now have a shot at a 10-victory season. The Sun Bowl wasn't kind to the Big East last season (Oregon slaughtered USF), but the Panthers have a good, consistent look about them, led by sophomore workhorse RB LeSean McCoy. Oregon State has one of the nation's top freshmen in RB Jacquizz Rogers, who led the Beavers' upset of USC.

The Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Oregon State 24.

MUSIC CITY BOWL

The Skinny: Boston College was hoping for its first ACC title and BCS bowl appearance. No such luck. The Eagles were smacked by Virginia Tech 30-12 in the ACC Championship Game. Redshirt freshman QB Dominique Davis, of Lakeland's Kathleen High School, hopes to continue BC's biggest recent tradition. The Eagles have won eight consecutive bowl games, the longest current run in the NCAA. Vanderbilt, playing in its home city, is making its first bowl appearance since 1982.

The Prediction: Boston College 24, Vanderbilt 20.

INSIGHT BOWL

The Skinny: For the first time ever, Kansas has back-to-back bowl appearances. Granted, this isn't the Orange Bowl (which KU won last season, beating Virginia Tech). Still, the Jayhawks finished with a flourish, upsetting arch-rival Missouri in a snow-bound shootout. Jayhawks QB Todd Reesing will be the best player on the field. Minnesota has come a long way from last season's 1-11 travesty, but they won't be able to finish with a victory, not against this KU bunch.

The Prediction: Kansas 45, Minnesota 32.

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL

The Skinny: Georgia Tech hasn't felt this good about its Yellow Jackets since Joe Hamilton was the quarterback. Paul Johnson, the ACC coach of the year, installed a triple-option offense and it ran roughshod over opponents in the late season. Georgia Tech closed with wins against Miami and Georgia, while RB Jonathan Dwyer became a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate. Everything has changed for LSU, the defending national champion, that was supposed to continue its recent tradition of excellent defense. It hasn't happened. And it won't happen here, either.

The Prediction: Georgia Tech 28, LSU 14.

OUTBACK BOWL

The Skinny: Ah, a little Outback breakfast with Steve Spurrier. Should be entertaining. But if the Gamecocks aren't careful, Iowa RB Shonn Greene will hand them their lunch. Greene will gallop for lots and lots of yardage and South Carolina might be force to throw it 45 times. Iowa will finish with six wins in its last seven games – and Kirk Ferentz's hot seat will be a thing of the past. Gamecocks freshman QB Stephen Garcia, the Jefferson High graduate who was named the starter, will go down slinging in his hometown.

The Prediction: Iowa 35, South Carolina 20.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

The Skinny: Georgia was the preseason No. 1-ranked team, but it went through a trio of defensive meltdowns, losing against Alabama, Florida and Georgia Tech. That never makes for a successful season. The Bulldogs can save some face and get to 10 victories, but they'll have to find a way of stopping Spartans RB Javon Ringer. Look for Georgia to rely on its tried-and-true formula – outscoring the opponent – by unleashing RB Knowshon Moreno and QB Matthew Stafford.

The Prediction: Georgia 38, Michigan State 31.

GATOR BOWL

The Skinny: Clemson and Nebraska are programs on the rebound. A victory here would be especially meaningful. It was a nice return to respectability by Coach Bo Pelini's Cornhuskers, but Nebraska's Blackshirt defense will be severely tested by Clemson's backfield tandem of James Davis and C.J. Spiller. Here's a chance for Clemson to bury a largely disappointing up-and-down season by going out with a bang. Clemson's Dabo Swinney, who just got the permanent coaching job, will finish with a 5-2 season-closing flourish.

The Prediction: Clemson 28, Nebraska 27.

ROSE BOWL

The Skinny: This might be the best bowl game of them all. Oh, what might have been for both teams. Penn State lost at Iowa 24-23, foiling its BCS title hopes. Meanwhile, USC dropped a Thursday night shocker against Oregon State, 27-21, and could never recover (although nobody in the nation wants to play the Trojans now, not even Florida or Oklahoma). USC normally thrives at the Rose Bowl, and it's difficult to imagine another outcome, particularly with the way the Trojans have been playing defense of late.

The Prediction: USC 27, Penn State 10.

ORANGE BOWL

The Skinny: Virginia Tech won a battle of attrition and claimed its third ACC title in the past five years. The Hokies have a nice defense, excellent special teams and an improving QB in Tyrod Taylor. But even though it seems strange to see Cincinnati playing on New Year's Day, the Bearcats belong. Coach Brian Kelly fought through numerous quarterback issues and got his team pointed in the right direction. Since the ACC-Big East expansion shakeup, the Big East champion has won three straight BCS bowl games. Meanwhile, the ACC is on a miserable run, dropping eight straight BCS bowl games. Let's make it nine.

The Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Virginia Tech 17.

COTTON BOWL

The Skinny: In a way, we're sad that Texas Tech couldn't make it to the BCS Championship Game. That would've been quite a stage for off-the-wall Coach Mike Leach, plus the superb pitch-and-catch combination of QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree. But the Red Raiders still get a nice stage, and it won't be easy against Ole Miss, the only team to defeat Florida (31-30 back on Sept. 27). Rebels QB Jevan Snead is a transfer from Texas, so you know he wants to shine in Dallas. This one will be fun to watch.

The Prediction: Texas Tech 42, Ole Miss 40.

LIBERTY BOWL

The Skinny: East Carolina looked like a BCS-buster early on, when it rolled to a 3-0 mark, including victories against Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Ah, but the Pirates quickly came back to earth. They were no fluke, though, as they won the Conference USA Championship Game and have a shot at a double-digit victory season. Kentucky will put up little resistance against Pirates QB Patrick Pinckney.

The Prediction: East Carolina 30, Kentucky 14.

SUGAR BOWL

The Skinny: Alabama must be deflated after losing its unbeaten record and SEC championship at the hands of Florida. But this is no time to be discouraged. Utah, unbeaten for the second time in five teams, will be highly motivated. Alabama's defense and its machine-like offensive line will control this game from the opening whistle.

The Prediction: Alabama 24, Utah 20.

INTERNATIONAL BOWL

The Skinny: UConn has the nation's leading rusher in Donald Brown (1,822 yards). Buffalo has the nation's leading story in Coach Turner Gill, the former Nebraska quarterback who transferred a program that once struggled to win a game into the Mid-American Conference champion. We're going with the story.

The Prediction: Buffalo 30, Connecticut 21.

FIESTA BOWL

The Skinny: Texas is still steaming after being eliminated from the Big 12 South division race (Oklahoma went to the title game, breaking a three-way tie, because of the BCS standings, the league's fifth criteria). So expect the Longhorns to be steaming, trying to impress the Associated Press voters, who could possibly place Texas at No. 1 in the final poll if the right chips fall. The Longhorns have a great quarterback in Colt McCoy, but the Buckeyes have a nice one, too, in freshman Terrelle Pryor, along with bullish tailback Chris "Beanie'' Wells. But there's too much incentive working for Texas and too much karma working against Ohio State (you remember the Buckeyes' last visit to Glendale – Florida 41, Ohio State 14).

The Prediction: Texas 35, Ohio State 27.

GMAC BOWL

The Skinny: The terrific story of Ball State and QB Nate Davis came crashing down when its unbeaten season was ended by Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game. But this isn't a bad consolation prize, a date with Conference USA runner-up Tulsa, in what should be a frantic up-and-down game.

The Prediction: Ball State 34, Tulsa 30.

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

The Skinny: Either Florida's Urban Meyer or Oklahoma's Bob Stoops will become the first coach to win two BCS championships. Naturally, the focus should be on each team's high-flying offense. And that's a difficult factor to ignore, what with Florida's Tim Tebow and Oklahoma's Sam Bradford at quarterback. But defense will decide this game. Oklahoma is the only team in history to roll up 60 or more points in five straight games. But the Sooners haven't encountered a defense as athletic and physical as the one Florida will offer. For the Gators, it will be party time in Miami.

The Prediction: Florida 38, Oklahoma 24.

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