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The 2009 Prediction: 14 Named Storms, 7 Becoming Hurricanes

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 10, 2008

TAMPA - The 2008 hurricane season just ended, and researchers at Colorado State University today issued a forecast for another busy season in 2009.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach predict that next year will have 14 named storms, with seven of them becoming hurricanes. Three of those are expected to become major storms with winds of 111 mph or higher.

That would make 2009 slightly less active than 2008.

The long-term average is 10 named storms and six hurricanes, with two growing into major storms.

Some reasons behind the expected above-average season are similar to those for last year – higher than normal water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the lack of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.

An El Niño, which forms when water across a vast stretch of the equatorial Pacific rises several degrees above normal, stunts the formation of hurricanes.

Also, hurricane experts say we are in a period of active hurricane seasons that started in 1995 and could last another decade. Since 1995, 13 of 14 seasons have had more storms than the long-term average.

In December 2007, Gray and Klotzbach predicted 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes for 2008.

The season that ended Nov. 30 had 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

That makes this year the fourth most active since 1944, when aircraft started flying into hurricanes. Only 2005 (with 28 storms), 1995 (with 19 storms) and 1969 (with 18 storms) were more active.

Gray and Klotzbach will issue five more forecasts before the end of the 2009 season: April 7, June 2, Aug. 4, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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