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Risk Looms Over U.S., Report Says

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The Associated Press

Published: December 26, 2008

WASHINGTON - The terrorism threat to the United States during the next five years will be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa, persistent challenges to border security and increasing Internet savvy, says a new intelligence assessment obtained by The Associated Press.

Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks are considered the most dangerous that could be carried out against the United States. Those threats are also the most unlikely, however, because it is so difficult for al-Qaida and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots, according to the internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-13.

The al-Qaida terrorist network continues to focus on U.S. attack targets vulnerable to massive economic losses, casualties and political "turmoil," the assessment said.

Marked "for official use only," the report does not specify its audience, but the assessments typically go to law enforcement, intelligence officials and the private sector. When determining threats, intelligence officials consider loss of life, economic and psychological consequences.

BIOLOGICAL RISK

•Intelligence officials predict that in the next five years, terrorists will try to conduct a destructive biological attack.

•Officials are concerned about the possibility of infections involving thousands of U.S. citizens that would overwhelm regional health care systems.

•There could also be dire economic impacts caused by workers' illnesses and deaths.

•Officials are most concerned about biological agents stolen from labs or other storage facilities, such as anthrax.

BORDER SECURITY

•Terrorists will continue to try to evade U.S. border security measures and place operatives on the mainland to carry out attacks, the 38-page assessment predicted.

•It also said that they may pose as refugees or asylum seekers or try to exploit foreign travel channels such as the visa waiver program, which allows citizens of 34 countries to enter the United States without visas.

•Long waits for immigration and more restrictive European refugee and asylum programs will cause more foreigners to try to enter the U.S. illegally.

•Increasing numbers of Iraqis are expected to migrate to the United States in the next five years; and refugees from Somalia and Sudan could increase because of conflicts in those countries.

•Because there is a proposed cap of 12,000 refugees from Africa, officials expect more will try to enter the United States illegally as well. Officials predict the same scenario for refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

HOMEGROWN RADICALS

•The pool of radical Islamists in the United States will increase because recruiting online is becoming easier.

•Officials foresee "a wave of young, self-identified Muslim 'terrorist wannabes' who aspire to carry out violent acts," such as the group convicted this week of plotting to massacre U.S. soldiers at Fort Dix.

•The Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah does not have a known history of fomenting attacks inside the United States, but that could change if there is some kind of "triggering" event.

CYBER ATTACKS

•More sophisticated and available hacking tools are expected to increase the cyber terror threat.

•Islamic terrorists and al-Qaida do not have the capability to conduct cyber attacks, but the report says al-Qaida has the ability to hire hackers.

•The large-scale attacks that are on al-Qaida's wish list - such as disrupting a major city's water or power systems - require sophisticated cyber capabilities that the terrorist group does not possess.

•Federal officials think that in the next three to five years, al-Qaida could direct or inspire cyber attacks that target the U.S. economy.

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