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Published: February 3, 2008
The Patriots do have a weakness. It's the age of their inside linebackers, Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau. It doesn't show up very often, but if the Giants run power back Brandon Jacobs up the middle at those linebackers consistently, they could eventually wear them down. That and a dash or two of change-up back Ahmad Bradshaw should help the Giants develop some ball control. That would allow them to lean less on Eli Manning's arm to produce points, and it should help them keep Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense off the field.
The Giants don't have the guns to get into a shootout with New England. They have to play sound, fundamental football to win this game, and using their backs to attack the middle of the defense is by far the best way to achieve that objective.
This goes more for the Giants than the Patriots, because the latter won't be deterred from doing what they want to do offensively even if they fall behind by a couple of scores. The Giants, on the other hand, quickly will abandon their running game if they fall behind, so it will aid them greatly to put the first points on the board. In addition to giving them an early edge, it also will give them some confidence.
Judging by the Giants' almost cocky attitude and the comments they've made here this week, they appear to be a team brimming with confidence. But don't let their bravado fool you. They know good and well who the best team is, and they know that scoring first will go a long way toward determining today's winner.
Had they done a better job of finishing their scoring drives with touchdowns instead of field goals two weeks ago, the Chargers might be representing the AFC in this game. Likewise, the Packers might be here as the NFC representative had their last scoring drive in the NFC title game resulted in a touchdown. Maxing out on scoring drives is always important, and it gets more difficult as you move on in the playoffs.
The winner of this game almost certainly will be the one that scores the most touchdowns, so both teams have to keep the chains moving, avoid costly mistakes and turnovers and get the ball into the end zone. Fail to do that and you'll forever be remembered (or forgotten) as the team that lost Super Bowl XLII.
Eli Manning seems to have found his groove the last few weeks, but even he says he's had stretches like this before. He's still a young quarterback prone to making game-changing mistakes if pressured properly. The same can't be said of Tom Brady, but Brady is human. He'll struggle as well if the Giants can get to him and force him to hurry his throws. Unlike Manning, Brady won't crumble under simple pressure. The Giants have to get to him and take him down. Brady is far too poised in the pocket to be flustered by an average rush that doesn't get to him. He needs to be shaken and rattled, mostly by the front four. Only then will his passes lose power and accuracy, and only then will the Giants have the bodies available downfield to make a big play.
Big plays don't just change momentum, they change games. And boy, don't the Giants know it. They gave up a 65-yard touchdown pass to Randy Moss in their regular-season finale against the Patriots and never recovered. They can't afford to do the same thing here, because plays of that nature automatically will take a big chunk out of their confidence and could drastically alter the way they play the game. The Patriots won't respond to such a play in quite the same way, because they know they have the weapons to get back into the game, but they can't afford to give up big plays either. One such play will only serve to boost the Giants' confidence. If they build up enough of that, they'll quickly put themselves in position to pull off an upset.
Giants DE Michael Strahan vs. Patriots RT Nick Kaczur
Strahan could retire after this game, so he's going to want to go out with a flash. He's going to be on his game in this one, and that could result in a long day for Kaczur. Kaczur is athletic and strong, but he has a tendency to get over-aggressive. Strahan will try to outsmart him with a series of moves, which is the best way to win a battle with Kaczur. The best way to beat Strahan is to go low. Kaczur has the strength and leverage to do that, but he needs to be careful not to commit too soon. If he can engage Strahan, he can win the battle. But Strahan will gain the edge if he can find a way to shed Kaczur and stand his ground.
ADVANTAGE: Strahan
Patriots WR Randy Moss vs. Giants CB Corey Webster
Though he has good size and strength, Webster is probably the weaker of the Giants' two corners. As a result, the Patriots will look to get Moss matched up against him as often as possible. With his speed and maneuverability, Moss should have no trouble breaking free of Webster, but Webster has shown a propensity in recent weeks to make big plays. He will try to press Moss at the line, but he will need plenty of help over the top from his safeties to shut Moss down. The Patriots will work other receivers if necessary to get the matchup they want, but if they exercise patience, they eventually should find an opening and exploit Webster's weaknesses.
ADVANTAGE: Moss
Roy Cummings
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