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Interpreting Tonight's Vote Result Depends On Party

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By ADAM NAGOURNEY, The New York Times

Published: February 5, 2008

Brace yourself.

Forty-three presidential nominating contests in 24 states. Channel upon channel of commentators talking about exit polls. The biggest prize of the night, California, being decided well after most viewers have headed for bed.

A total of 3,156 delegates allocated under arcane rules on what could be the most significant night of the 2008 campaign to date.

This is a guide of things to look for tonight, starting from when the first polls close (Georgia at 7 p.m.) to when the voting is completed in California at 11 p.m. Eastern time.

There are two ways to approach the results.

The first is old-fashioned: which candidates rack up the most states. But this is about more than popular vote totals; the point of these contests is to allocate delegates to the national conventions.

Thus, the big question is how much attention to pay to the results map on television - lighted up with, say, states that have swung to Sen. John McCain's column - and how much attention to pay to the delegate counter.

The answer is both, but put somewhat more focus on states for the Republicans and put somewhat more on delegates for the Democrats. Democrats allocate most of their delegates proportionately; candidates are awarded a cut of the delegate pie based on their percentage of the vote. It is likely that the losing candidate will still get a substantial share of the delegates.

Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton will no doubt start claiming state victories as soon they can, with the goal of trying to get on television and grab the front-runner spotlight, but those results probably will remain largely symbolic. Assuming the race remains close, what matters going forward is who gets the most pledged delegates.

Republicans' delegate selection rules are different.

In eight of the 21 Republican contests, the winner gets the delegates: No dividing up the spoils. What that means is that it is going to be easy for a candidate to build up a big delegate lead tonight and, combined with winning some big states, credibly declare himself the party's presumptive nominee. That is precisely what McCain is looking to do.

For Republicans, two states could end up determining whether the race goes on from here: California and Massachusetts, and this has nothing to do with delegates.

Mitt Romney headed out to California on a last-minute trip Monday, drawn by polls suggesting the race was narrowing, despite McCain's collection of high-profile endorsements, like one from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. If Romney pulls out a win in the nation's largest state, no matter what happens anyplace else, he is unlikely to fold soon.

McCain, in a poke-in-the-eye moment, campaigned in Massachusetts, Romney's home state. Should McCain win in Massachusetts and hold on to California, that would probably be the lights-out moment at the Romney headquarters. No wonder that McCain sneaked a last-minute trip to California onto his schedule for this morning.

For Democrats, watch California, Massachusetts, New York, Missouri, Arizona and New Mexico. If Obama wins California, that is a real momentum-blocker for Clinton: There are few states in the country that are more identified with the Clinton presidency than this one.

If Obama wins Massachusetts, that will be testimony to the power of Sen. Edward Kennedy, and a real sting for Clinton, who once thought she had a comfortable lead there. If Obama comes close in New York, or in neighboring New Jersey, watch for a tough round of questions about Clinton's electability.

Finally, think of Missouri, Arizona and New Mexico as the swing states in this contest: Obama and Clinton are pretty evenly matched there. Missouri is a swing state in the general election, and might be one in this one as well.

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