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Super Tuesday Hype Fades, But Nothing's Been Settled

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By PAUL KANE, The Washington Post

Published: February 6, 2008

By winning delegate-rich states such as New York, John McCain attained a solid lead over his rivals Tuesday but must continue to accumulate victories this month and in March to secure the Republican presidential nomination.

After competing victories in multiple states by each of the two remaining Democratic candidates, however, the Democratic nomination contest remained muddled. Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton each won substantial new delegates because of the party's rule apportioning them according to the vote.

The absence of an overwhelming Democratic victor left the outcome of the party's contest in doubt, possibly until late spring.

On the Republican side, McCain came out on top in delegate-rich states such as New York and New Jersey, where party rules dictated that the first-place finisher got all the delegates. Along with his winner-take-all victories in Connecticut and Delaware, McCain collected more than 200 delegates on the East Coast.

In his contest with former Govs. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, McCain is seeking a total 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. Precise tallies still were being calculated Tuesday night, but early results made clear that McCain had collected more than 330 delegates since balloting began five weeks ago.

McCain's strong showing meant that he could have twice as many as Romney and Huckabee, who scored victories only in smaller states. His supporters began the day hoping for a knockout punch so McCain - who is viewed warily by conservatives in his party - could begin trying to unify Republicans while Democrats dig in for a long nomination fight.

"It gives you a chance to go out and immediately consolidate people behind you," said Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., an early McCain backer. "I think that's advantage us, if Democrats are fighting this out."

The early tallies, however, suggested that McCain's nomination is still not certain, and Huckabee's wins Tuesday in Southern states could create a protracted three-way fight.

On the Republican side, next week's so-called Potomac Primary in Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia will be the most critical because all three votes are winner-take-all. If McCain - who has prominent backers in Virginia and Maryland - takes all three, he would gain another 119 delegates.

Romney and Huckabee can keep their hopes alive by splitting the vote with McCain in four other states this month that do not have winner-take-all rules, and trying to catch a wave of momentum before four contests on March 4. That's when another substantial portion of delegates is up for grabs, including a chunk in Texas, and a mostly winner-take-all chunk in Ohio.

Should the Republican and Democratic contests remain undecided after the Mississippi primary on March 11, the candidates will have six weeks to campaign anew without facing a primary or caucus anywhere in the nation. The Democratic rules make it likely that the nomination battle will last at least until April 22, when Pennsylvania holds its primary.

Every Democratic caucus and primary apportions delegates based on the percentages of votes received for candidates, with a twist. About two-thirds of delegates are awarded depending on votes within congressional districts, and one-third are awarded as at-large delegates based on the entire statewide vote.

That means that Clinton, despite getting crushed by a 2-1 vote margin by Obama in Georgia, still took close to a third of the more than 100 delegates available there.

The magic number for the Democratic nomination is a total of 2,025 delegates. Neither candidate appeared likely to be halfway toward that total after Tuesday's balloting in 22 states and American Samoa. Just 10 percent are up for grabs in the next three weeks - all in states that have seen little attention so far from the candidates.

"Nobody's predicting what's going to happen," Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., a Clinton supporter, said of her state's caucus Saturday.

If both candidates continue to divvy up the more than 3,200 delegates to be decided in primaries, the nomination ultimately will be decided by nearly 800 party officials who can select whomever they wish. Called super-delegates, each is given a delegate vote at the party's nominating convention in August.

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