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Delegate Counts May Seem Like Lesson In New Math

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By MIKE McINTIRE, The New York Times

Published: February 9, 2008

Turn on MSNBC, and you will learn that Sen. Barack Obama has more delegates (861) than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (855) in the Democratic presidential contest.

Visit Politico.com, the politics Web site, and you are told Clinton is ahead, with 1,000 delegates to Obama's 902.

The New York Times, meanwhile, reports that Clinton has 912 and Obama 741. The campaigns offer up still more versions of the tally.

The greatly divergent delegate totals say as much about the Byzantine nature of the Democratic nominating process as they do about the different counting methods of various news organizations.

Add to that delays in reporting results from the bundle of states that voted Tuesday and the loss of delegates for some states that moved up their primaries in defiance of party rules, and voters are left with a frustratingly unfocused picture of who is ahead in the Democratic field.

Candidates Locked In Battle

Although such uncertainty over delegate counts has been a feature of previous campaigns, the stakes are much higher this time, as Clinton and Obama are locked in a fierce battle that places a premium on the perception of momentum.

In this supercharged atmosphere, the disputed delegate count is more than a statistical exercise: It can influence a candidate's ability to raise money, sway party leaders and get out the vote.

"The system is too complicated, and this is what happens as a result," said Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic consultant in New York. "They are going to fight over every last delegate, because the delegates now have become a way for the candidates to claim momentum and everything that comes with that."

The difficulty in assessing delegate strength lies in a multistep caucus system that is different from a primary.

A caucus, on the other hand, is just the first stage of a process that can drag on until late spring before producing reliable numbers.

As a result, some news organizations do not include caucus results in projecting delegate counts, waiting instead until delegates from those states are officially certified.

As of Friday, seven states - Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada and North Dakota - had held precinct-level Democratic caucuses to choose delegates who will go to district-level or statewide party conventions in the coming months.

It is at those conventions where delegates will officially be pledged to a candidate at the national convention in Denver, where 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

Until then, there is nothing to prevent the outcome of the caucuses from changing.

Caucus Projections Muddy Waters

News organizations that are reporting higher delegate totals - The Associated Press has Clinton with 1,055 delegates and Obama with 998 - are projecting that the caucus results will ultimately hold up.

The AP tracks the delegate races by projecting the number of national convention delegates won by candidates in each presidential primary or caucus, based on state and national party rules, and by interviewing unpledged delegates to obtain their preferences. The Tampa Tribune uses the AP's tally.

In some states, such as Iowa and Nevada, local precinct caucuses are the first stage in the allocation process. The AP uses preferences expressed in those caucuses to project the number of national convention delegates each candidate will have when they are chosen at county, congressional district or state conventions.

How to account for the results of the caucuses has been a subject of intense debate.

Adding to the confusion this year is that the Democratic National Committee stripped the delegates from two populous states, Florida and Michigan, as punishment for those states moving up their primaries to a date earlier than party rules allowed. Although voters went to the polls in those states, and Clinton claimed victory in both, she earned no delegates as a result.

The fluidity of the delegate count is intensified by the presence of so-called superdelegates, party leaders and elected officials who can support whomever they choose.

Of the 796 superdelegates nationwide, just 303 had publicly pledged support for a candidate as of Friday, according to a survey of the delegates by The New York Times and CBS News; other news organizations have their own methods of accounting for superdelegates, which may yield different results. The Associated Press interviews unpledged delegates to obtain their preferences.
DELEGATE TOTALS
DEMOCRATS

Hillary Rodham Clinton: 1,055

Barack Obama: 998

Needed to nominate: 2,025

REPUBLICANS

John McCain: 719

Mike Huckabee: 198

Needed to nominate: 1,191

The Associated Press

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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