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Obama Fares Better In Poll

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By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON, The Associated Press

Published: February 12, 2008

WASHINGTON - Democrat Barack Obama would narrowly defeat Republican John McCain if they were matched today in the presidential election, while McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton are running about even, according to new general-election sentiment since the Super Tuesday contests.

Obama outpaces Clinton in a matchup against McCain among men, minorities and moderates in an Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Monday. And she does no better than Obama when pitted against McCain among two groups that have supported her in Democratic primaries so far: women and whites.

Recent primaries and Mitt Romney's departure from the Republican race have made McCain the heavy favorite to win the GOP presidential nomination. Clinton and Obama are locked in a Democratic battle that may take weeks or months to resolve.

When she is paired against McCain in a general election matchup, she gets 46 percent to his 45 percent, a tie, according to the poll. Obama edges McCain, the Arizona senator, 48 percent to 42 percent in their pairing.

"We bring in voters who haven't given Democrats a chance" in the past, said Obama pollster Cornell Belcher, citing the Illinois senator's support from independents and other groups.

Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, spoke of her backing from women and Hispanics and said, "Hillary Clinton has a coalition of voters well-suited to winning the general election."

One reason McCain holds his own against Clinton is his support from men, who prefer him to the New York senator by 9 percentage points. That compensates for her 11-point advantage among women.

Obama does better than Clinton with men when paired against McCain, splitting the male vote with the Arizona senator. Obama does especially well with men younger than 45: He defeats McCain by 9 points, while McCain defeats Clinton with those voters by 7 points.

Meanwhile, Obama's advantage over McCain among women is about the same as Clinton's, blunting her edge in a group that has been the core of her strength in her fight for the Democratic nomination. Women favor Obama over McCain by 12 points, and favor Clinton over McCain by 11.

Obama gets 74 percent of the votes of minorities when paired against McCain, 7 points more than Clinton. Echoing a pattern seen in most Democratic primaries so far, Obama does better than Clinton among blacks, while she attracts slightly more support from Hispanics.

The survey was conducted Feb. 7-10 and involved telephone interviews with 1,029 adults. It had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Included were 520 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.3 points, and 357 Republicans, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.2 points.

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