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Bernanke Gives Dark Forecast

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By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, The Associated Press

Published: February 15, 2008

WASHINGTON - Using words like "sluggish" and "deteriorated," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a starkly pessimistic assessment of the nation's economy Thursday and signaled that the Fed will cut interest rate cuts further if needed to combat the adverse effects of a prolonged housing slump and a severe credit crisis.

Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told a congressional hearing the economy still could avert a full-blown recession, but Democrats said they thought the government should be doing much more to help millions of Americans cope with a threatened tidal wave of mortgage foreclosures.

Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee the serious housing slump and a credit crisis triggered by rising defaults in subprime mortgages had greatly strained the economy.

"The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months and the downside risks to growth have increased," Bernanke told the committee. "To date, the largest economic effects of the financial turmoil appear to have been on the housing market, which, as you know, has deteriorated significantly over the past two years or so."

Bernanke noted that hiring has slowed with job creation falling by 17,000 in January, the first such setback in more than four years. He said the weaker labor market along with recent declines in stock prices and declining home prices were likely to be a drag on consumer confidence going forward.

The Fed chief told senators the "virtual shutdown" of the market for subprime mortgages given to people with blemished credit histories or low incomes - and a reluctance by skittish lenders to make "jumbo" home loans exceeding $417,000 - have aggravated problems in the housing market.

Bernanke said that in his own economic forecast he did not predict a recession but a period of sluggish growth "followed by a somewhat stronger pace of growth starting later this year" as the effects of the Fed's rate cuts and the $168 billion economic stimulus package of tax rebates begin to be felt.

He also said, however, that there were significant downside risks, ranging from the threat that the housing slide could become even more severe, the job market could deteriorate more than currently expected or that the credit squeeze will intensify.

He said the Fed would be monitoring the economy closely and would "act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and provide adequate insurance against downside risks."

On Wall Street, Bernanke's comments pushed stocks lower. The Dow Jones industrials closed down 175.26 points at 12,376.98.

Private economists said they viewed Bernanke's sober assessment as a clear signal that the Fed, which cut interest rates by 1.25 percentage points in two moves in January, is prepared to cut rates further.

Brian Bethune, an economist at the private forecasting firm Global Insight, said he looked for bold half-point cuts at the Fed's next two regular meetings March 18 and April 30. He said that what came out "loud and clear" from Bernanke's testimony was an increased concern about the stresses to the financial system from the credit crisis.

Although saying that housing represented the greatest threat to the economy, Paulson, who testified along with Bernanke and Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, said he did not think the economy would fall into a recession. He said the administration is working to ensure the government checks ranging from $300 to $1,200 are sent out without delay starting in May.

That stimulus package, which Congress passed last week, is expected to give the economy a sizable jolt in the second half of this year although many economists think it will be too late to keep the economy from recording two consecutive quarters of negative economic output, the classic definition of a recession.

Paulson said he continued to look for good ideas but at the moment did not see the need to do any more than such current efforts as encouraging the mortgage industry to freeze rates on some subprime mortgages for five years and offering a 30-day reprieve on foreclosures for homeowners seriously behind on their payments to give them time to try to work out a loan modification with their lenders.

A group of Senate Democrats, however, said those efforts fell far short of what is needed. They announced outside of the hearing that they were introducing a second stimulus measure that would have a variety of initiatives to help stem foreclosures including providing $4 billion in new community development grants to purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed properties.

"If we really want to tackle the economic problems the country is facing, we must address the housing crisis that got us here," said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a supporter of the new stimulus measures.

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