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Democrats Fear Nomination Deadlock

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: February 16, 2008

Updated: 02/16/2008 12:12 am

TAMPA - Democrats nationwide are worried that the nearly tied nomination battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama is headed for a disputed outcome, threatening their chances to win November's election.

If the deadlock continues, they fear, the nominee could be chosen in a way that angers party members - either by unpledged "superdelegates" or by the disputed delegations from Florida and Michigan.

Their concerns are:

•First, if state primaries don't produce a clear winner, it will take a back room battle at the convention in August to choose the nominee, leaving only a few weeks to campaign for November's election.

•Second, that superdelegates, who don't have to vote according to the outcome of primaries, may decide the race, which some say would be undemocratic.

•Third, that the two large, disputed state delegations now officially banned from the convention, Florida and Michigan, could be enough to change the outcome if they were seated, as Clinton says they should be.

All in all, some Democrats worry the race could become a contentious, self-defeating battle in an election year when circumstances should strongly favor a Democratic win.

On the Senate floor recently, Florida Sen. Bill Nelson said the primary was headed for a "train wreck." Nelson later toned down his comments, but other Democrats remain worried.

"This should be a Democratic year, with an unpopular war and a recession," said Jim Kitchens, a Democratic pollster and political consultant from Orlando. "It should be better than it looks right now."

Citing national polls showing McCain roughly tied with either Democrat, Kitchens said, "If Democrats get hacked off and 1 or 2 percent don't show up at the polls, it could make a difference, particularly in Florida."

If Obama holds his current lead among pledged delegates won in primaries, but loses because of superdelegate votes, "the African-Americans and young people who have been flooding primary polls and caucuses might not show up in November," Kitchens said.

The boycott of Florida's Jan. 29 primary by the Democratic candidates and the current argument between Clinton and Obama over seating the Floridians already are angering voters in a state crucial to the general election outcome, he said.

Uncertainty, Optimism

Most party activists, however, remain optimistic.

"I don't think there's a train wreck, I think it's just part of the process," said Terrie Brady of Jacksonville, a former state party chairwoman and superdelegate who has not yet committed. "It means we'll have an exciting convention, and whoever the nominee is, you're going to see the largest Democratic turnout in history in November."

She and others cited the big Democratic turnouts so far in primaries and caucuses, outpacing the GOP.

Judithanne Scourfield-McLauchlan, a University of South Florida political scientist and a former Democratic political operative, said the Democrats' worries are real, but she's not ready to declare disaster yet.

"It would be a concern if the superdelegates were to make the decision," she said. "But it's too early to think the sky is falling. Ask me after March 4" - the day of the next round of state primaries, including delegate-rich Ohio and Texas.

Complicating things is uncertainty about how many delegates the candidates have won.

Obama leads among pledged delegates and Clinton among superdelegates, but no one's sure by how much.

Superdelegates are high- level party or elected officials who get automatic slots in their state delegations. While pledged delegates are allocated according to a primary or caucus vote, superdelegates can vote as they wish.

There are 795 of them out of 4,049 total delegates, with 2,025 needed to win.

Most superdelegates haven't declared allegiance yet, and can change their minds. Even omitting them, the count isn't certain because some state caucuses are non-binding. Then there are John Edwards' 26 delegates.

The most recent Associated Press overall count is 1,280 for Obama and 1,218 for Clinton.

Counting only pledged delegates, the New York Times says Obama's lead is 916-885; AP says 1,112 to 978.

Clinton expects wins in Ohio and Texas, but her campaign strategists say that will yield only a tie in the delegate race, with Pennsylvania and a host of small states yet to come.

Florida, Michigan Complications

Counting Florida would bring Clinton closer to Obama by 37 pledged delegates, 104 to his 67, plus some of its 22 superdelegates. In Michigan, where only her name was on the ballot because the other candidates took theirs off, she won 73 to 55 uncommitted.

Clinton argues that Florida and Michigan voters shouldn't be ignored. But some Democrats, including Obama, say it would be unfair to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates because the candidates didn't campaign in those states, meaning there wasn't a fair test.

Neither Florida nor Michigan seems likely to solve the conflict by holding new caucuses to choose delegates acceptable to the national party. The ban resulted from both states holding primaries earlier than allowed.

Florida Democrats say the Jan. 29 primary, in which 1.7 million Democrats voted, is a better expression of voters' will than a hastily arranged caucus could be, and was a fair contest with all candidates on the ballot.

Michigan Democratic Party spokesman Dominick Quinney said the party there has no answer as to whether it would hold a new caucus, but it has announced its delegate allocation.

Role Of Superdelegates

Two liberal organizations, MoveOn.org and Democracy for America, have launched petition drives saying superdelegates shouldn't decide the race - they should cast their votes according to the outcome among the pledged delegates.

"We don't want them coming in and playing the role of king or queen maker," said Charles Chamberlain of DFA.

Obama himself has made similar suggestions, and Chamberlain said bloggers "in the progressive political community" are promoting the idea.

But superdelegates may not buy that argument.

"My vote is going to be for who I think would be the best president" and will be "based on the constitution and bylaws of the DNC," Brady said. "The rules are the superdelegates can make up their own minds."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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