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Disquiet Builds In Pakistan

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By MATTHEW PENNINGTON, The Associated Press

Published: February 17, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - The winners of what may be the most anticipated election this country has held will be settled the usual way Monday, by the number of ballots and fierce arguments over how they are counted. That, and perhaps the number of guns.

The nationwide parliamentary elections are intended to usher in an era of democracy in Pakistan after months of political turmoil and nearly a decade of military rule under President Pervez Musharraf.

Yet Monday's vote also heralds uncertainty. A vote rigged in favor of the unpopular government could spark violent unrest, while an opposition landslide would set up a showdown with Musharraf, Washington's key ally in the war on terrorism.

Public disenchantment after eight years of military rule and sympathy for opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated in a Dec. 27 suicide attack, look set to propel her opposition Pakistan People's Party to victory, although her successor as party leader, husband Asif Ali Zardari, has been tainted by corruption allegations.

Opinion polls give second place to the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, whose government was toppled in Musharraf's 1999 coup.

The pro-Musharraf party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, is running a distant third, its unpopularity compounded by sharply rising food prices and power outages. Its ratings have plummeted with Musharraf's as he has maneuvered to stay in power through an explosion of Taliban militancy throughout Pakistan.

Because of the surging Islamic militancy, many candidates have been discouraged from holding large rallies. Security fears are highest in lawless tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan.

On Saturday, a suicide bomber rammed a car packed with explosives into an independent parliament candidate's election office in northwest Pakistan, killing 37 people and wounding more than 90. The candidate, Syed Riaz Hussain, backed by the Pakistan People's Party, was unharmed.

Although Musharraf's own position as president is not being contested, a two-thirds opposition majority in the 342-seat National Assembly would leave him vulnerable to impeachment for declaring emergency rule in November and sacking Supreme Court judges who could have nullified his recent re-election to a new five-year term.

PAKISTAN'S VOTE

VOTING: More than 80 million Pakistanis 18 or older are eligible to vote Monday. Early results are expected in the early afternoon (Eastern Standard Time) but final official figures may not be available until Wednesday.

WHAT'S AT STAKE: Voters will choose 272 members of the National Assembly, or lower house of parliament, for a five-year term. Another 60 seats for women and 10 for religious minorities will be distributed after the election.

KEY ISSUES: The election is widely seen as a full restoration of civilian government after eight years of military rule under Musharraf, who seized power in a 1999 military coup. The new parliament will also have to confront growing Islamic militancy, a sluggish economy and whether to reinstate independent-minded judges removed by Musharraf during a state of emergency in November.

Information from The New York Times was used in this report.

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