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Leadership Shift Marks Uncertain Time For Russia

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By DOUGLAS BIRCH, The Associated Press

Published: February 17, 2008

MOSCOW - As Russia prepares for March 2 presidential elections, it enters an era of political uncertainty it has not seen since President Vladimir Putin succeeded Boris Yeltsin eight years ago.

Putin's longtime protege, Dmitry Medvedev, is expected to emerge the victor, thanks to the support of the Kremlin's political and media muscle. What policies a President Medvedev might pursue - or even whether he will be more than a figurehead - are a mystery, though.
Medvedev has said he will ask his friend and mentor, Putin, to become his prime minister, and emphasizes that he will pursue Putin's policies. If Putin accepts the premiership, Medvedev is expected to serve as Putin's understudy through at least his first months in office - an unprecedented situation.
Medvedev will face huge challenges at home and abroad. Within eight months he will be facing a new U.S. president-elect, while inheriting relations with the West that are at their lowest ebb since the Soviet era.

Russia's next leader needs to come to an understanding with Europe and the United Nations about future NATO expansion and plans for an anti-missile system near Russia's borders. He also must reassure the world that Russia is a constructive, unthreatening partner while maintaining ties with Iran, North Korea and other regimes considered pariahs in the West.

If Medvedev has any new ideas for dealing with these issues, he hasn't revealed them in his carefully scripted public appearances.

He hasn't even formally campaigned or agreed to debate his rivals.

Experts say Putin could become a kind of presidential adviser and coach to this 42-year-old, who would be the youngest Russian leader since Alexander Kerensky, at 36, was prime minister in the last months before the 1917 communist revolution.

Putin could exercise behind-the-scenes influence as he gradually relinquishes power, or he might establish himself as a kind of permanent co-president, directing Russia's intelligence, defense and foreign policy efforts, for example, while leaving domestic matters to Medvedev.

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