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Will Gay Marriage Ban Lure Voters?

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: February 24, 2008

TAMPA - In 2004, when President Bush won Ohio by a razor-thin margin, guaranteeing his re-election, conventional wisdom said a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage on the Ohio ballot was part of the reason.
Gay marriage bans on ballots were credited with helping Bush in other states and affecting other races nationwide, by driving conservative voters to the polls.

This year, Florida will have a similar amendment on its ballot, leading to speculation that it will affect voter turnout and maybe election outcomes - particularly since the apparent GOP nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, isn't popular with religious and social conservatives.

The amendment "absolutely" will drive conservative voters to the polls, said state GOP spokeswoman Erin VanSickle. "It's a Republican issue."

Opponents of the amendment even have suggested it was planned to help Republicans.

But political scientists who have studied the effect of ballot issues on voter turnout say that the conventional wisdom is probably wrong.

Citing elaborate statistical studies that compared voter turnout in states with and without issue questions on their ballots, the experts say the effects, if any, are limited.

They are likely to be even more limited in a state like Florida with hard-fought presidential campaigns, the experts said.

"Most voters who come out are going to be coming out to vote for the president," said Dan Smith, a University of Florida political scientist who specializes in researching ballot issues.

He said that would "overwhelm" an amendment-related turnout.

The Statistical Picture

Smith and other experts said ballot issues do have some effect on turnout, but it's small.

The statistical studies indicate that in midterm elections, a high-profile ballot issue can increase turnout by about 2 percent.

In presidential election years, it's about 1 percent, Smith said.

In low turnout elections, it can be more.

California's 1978 Proposition 13 property tax limit, placed on a primary ballot, produced more votes than any race on the ballot, Smith said.

As for Florida's amendment in November, however, "I really don't think it will have an impact," Smith said.

"People are going to be revved up about the candidates, and it's not likely to bring out people who otherwise wouldn't vote," he said.

What happened in Ohio in 2004?

John Matsusaka, president of the Initiative and Referendum Institute at the University of Southern California, said the statistical studies compared Ohio with similar states without referenda on their ballots and found little or no effect from the referendum.

The studies allowed for other differences, including high-profile Senate races on the ballots, he said.

"It might even have helped the Democrat" - Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry - by driving opponents to the polls as well as backers, Matsusaka said.

Bush won Ohio in 2000 with a slightly larger margin than in 2004.

Smith said a study he did found that Ohio counties with high support for the 2004 gay marriage ban did not have the highest turnout, contradicting the idea that the ban drove voters to the polls.

He noted that Bush already was identified with religious conservative issues, which means highlighting such an issue may have helped him more than it would help McCain.

"It didn't necessarily bring out more people, but it did help frame the debate and prime people to support Bush," Smith said.

Debate Ongoing In Florida Arena

Still, advocates on both sides of the gay marriage ban think it will help the GOP in Florida.

"There's very little doubt in our minds one of its purposes is to bring the conservative right out to vote," said Sally Phillips, a Tampa gay rights advocate, noting that Florida law already bans same-sex marriages.

John Stemberger, an Orlando lawyer and religious conservative activist who's leading the Florida4Marriage amendment campaign, denies that it has anything to do with increasing the turnout.

He pointed out that the petition drive began in 2004, aiming for the 2006 ballot.

He said the purpose of the amendment is to elevate the ban to the state constitution so that it cannot be overruled by a judge.

"Some say it will affect the election, others don't," he said. "I don't have an opinion on that."

While Stemberger's group was still trying for a 2006 ballot placement, the state Republican Party contributed $300,000 - a donation opponents cited as evidence for a political motivation.

After Gov. Charlie Crist took office last year, however, he said that he would not favor the party contributing further, even though he also said he favored the amendment.
State GOP chairman Jim Greer, a Crist backer, said he also favors the amendment but thinks Republican Party money should be spent to elect Republicans, not on the amendment drive.

"If we had unlimited resources," he said, he might think differently. "We have limited resources."

Hillary Would Be Best Bait

McCain backers in Florida hope for a boost from the amendment but are not banking on it.

Brian Ballard, a veteran state-level GOP activist, said he thinks the amendment "will help bring out the base" but that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democratic nominee would do more.

"This is going to be a huge turnout election," he said. "If our base can't get motivated on Clinton or Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, I don't know what it's going to take."

Matsusaka said the amendment could prove awkward for McCain because having it on the Florida ballot might force him to take a stand for or against it.

Stemberger said he will ask both parties' nominees to take positions on it.

McCain has angered some conservatives by opposing a U.S. constitutional ban on gay marriage.

He has said he does not oppose state bans, saying the matter should be up to a state's voters, and he campaigned for an amendment that was voted down in Arizona in 2006.

"If Florida becomes a critical state, you can imagine McCain would be forced to take a position," Matsusaka said.

Supporting it while justifying his opposition to a national ban "might be a tough dance for him to do."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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