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Victories By Obama, Huckabee Reflect National Discontent

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 5, 2008

Sen. Hillary Clinton is not inevitable after all, and Mitt Romney, with all his money and vaunted organization, couldn't pull off a victory.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards' populist message won over many Iowa Democrats, but fortunately not enough. He was right on one point, though: Change is in the offing.
Democrats and Republicans turned out in record numbers to caucus and gave big wins to Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, showing that at least in the Hawkeye State, politically aware residents are tired of business as usual in Washington.

The vote in Iowa seems to throw conventional wisdom out the window.

The victory by a black man in a state that is 95 percent white makes it more reasonable to assert that racism isn't as much of a factor in American politics as it once was.

And the win by a former Baptist minister, who possessed little money or organization but a keen political sense and engaging personality, suggests that Republicans want someone who talks about more than terrorism. Defending American cultural and social values will play a role in the coming campaign.

So the party establishment - both Democrats and Republicans - are on notice: American voters are in a defiant mood, and citizens will have their leaders' attention.

Obama's showing says something about his ability to inspire and mobilize younger voters and independents. In his victory speech he recognized his historic moment and spoke of hope. He'll have to be a lot more specific about what he will do for the country if he wins his party's nomination, but his promise of change and the way he has run his campaign offer a refreshing contrast to his major challengers.

Hillary's poor performance supports what many have said all along: A lot of Democrats don't want her as their candidate.

Two-thirds of her party in Iowa chose anyone but Hillary, suggesting they want a new direction, not more of the past. They want a candidate who can win, not one reviled by half the nation. They're so hungry for change that they're willing to overlook youth and inexperience.

Hillary's loss proves, too, that she can't count on the female vote, since 56 percent of caucusing Democrats were women, and she lost by eight percentage points.

It's hard to imagine the Republicans will nominate Huckabee in the end, even though his fresh face and message appealed to many in Iowa.

It's possible that in choosing him, citizens made a statement about negative campaigning. Going negative didn't help Romney, who jabbed Huckabee on taxes and his use of clemency while Arkansas' governor to grant pardons and commute prison sentences.

And who could have imagined that a fringe candidate like Ron Paul, who talks plainly about ending the war and changing Washington's culture, would draw nearly as much support as the Washington establishment's candidate, Fred Thompson, and more than the early leader in national polls, Rudy Giuliani.

Iowans took their first-in-the-nation role seriously and came out in big, big numbers to produce exciting results. The question now is whether it will have any effect on Tuesday's vote in New Hampshire.

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