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Florida Voters 'Could Have A Huge Role'

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 6, 2008

This time, it really matters.

Starting about mid-January, the national political spotlight will focus on Florida with a laser-like intensity we haven't seen since the infamous 2000 presidential recount.

Don't be surprised if Mitt Romney knocks on your door one afternoon to chat about politics.

If you see a CNN crew interviewing voters in the diner where you have your morning cafe con leche, try to maintain a world-weary sophistication, like Iowans do every four years.

And you might as well vote. The Florida presidential primary may not produce convention delegates as it's supposed to, but it still will be crucial - maybe even decisive - in the Democratic and Republican races.

"The eventual president may well owe his or her job in large measure to the boost obtained in the Florida primary," said University of Texas political scientist Bruce Buchanan, who specializes in presidential politics.

Florida's presidential primary won't produce its full measure of convention delegates for the winning candidates because of penalties imposed by the national parties over the schedule-busting Jan. 29 date.

But it will give the candidates who win or perform well a huge boost in what political junkies call "momentum" - favorable headlines nationwide that will help persuade political donors, party activists and voters in later primaries to get on the bandwagon.

"The race has been so fluid - if that continues, and it probably will, Florida could have a huge role," said Brian Jones, former strategist and spokesman for the Republican National Committee and Sen. John McCain's campaign.

Momentum, as political strategists explain it, is simply a matter of people looking to pick a winner - ordinary voters, as well as party activists who volunteer to work in campaigns, donors who pay for them and political leaders who make endorsements.

"Voters like to know that the candidates they support have the ability to do well. You don't want to waste your vote," said Karl Koch of Tampa, longtime Florida strategist for the Bill Clinton and Al Gore campaigns. "When they do well in an early primary, it reassures you they can succeed down the road."

In a primary race, University of Florida political scientist Stephen Craig said, differences between candidates on policy may be subtle or nonexistent, so voters tend to make decisions based on candidates' personal qualities, or on viability and electability.

"Can this candidate win in November? A lot of them will say any of these guys is OK on policy, and go with the one who can win," Craig said.

The best evidence of that is early primary wins.

Among donors and party activists, the effect is magnified, Koch said.

When a presidential candidate wins an early primary or surges in polls, "It gets a lot easier to organize; your fundraisers get their phone calls returned a lot faster."

To understand how much the Florida primary matters, you have to look at the schedule of early primaries, which occur before Feb. 5, and at Feb. 5 itself. It's "Tsunami Tuesday" - the closest the nation has ever had to a national presidential primary day.

After Thursday's Iowa caucuses and Wyoming's caucuses Saturday, the next presidential selection events are:

•Tuesday: New Hampshire primary

•Jan. 15: Michigan primary

•Jan. 19: Nevada caucuses and South Carolina Republican primary

•Jan. 26: South Carolina Democratic primary

•Jan. 29: Florida primary

•Feb. 5: Primaries in 22 states, including some of the nation's largest. Many experts think nominees in both parties may be known by the end of the day.

Florida is by far the largest and most demographically representative state to vote before Feb. 5, and the most politically important state.

"It will be perceived among national reporters as a litmus test, a national indicator of how things are going," Koch said. "And it's 27 electoral votes - whoever does well here in the primary, it will indicate that candidate could win Florida in November."

Florida's also is the last primary before Feb. 5, Jones noted. After Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, national attention will focus increasingly on the Sunshine State.

"Whoever wins, it will have momentum heading into a day when there are more than 2,000 delegates at stake."

The leading Democratic candidates have boycotted Florida because its Jan. 29 primary date violates the party's schedule. But its calendar position has made it a major battleground for the Republicans, particularly Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.

Giuliani, long considered the GOP frontrunner but threatened in the early primaries, has staked his campaign largely on a big win here. Romney hopes Florida could make him, not Giuliani, the frontrunner heading into Feb. 5.

Jones said he expects the GOP race to remain fluid - with no clear winner - through the early primaries, making Florida's role "huge."

Hillary Rodham Clinton also faces challenges in the early primary states and hopes for a big win in Florida, which could re-establish her dominance in the Democratic contest.

For both the frontrunners, Craig said, Florida is virtually a must-win state.

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