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Party Penalties Will Dilute Polls' Power

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 6, 2008

Florida is having a dismal decade when it comes to presidential primaries.

In 2000, Floridians voted in Republican and Democratic primaries on March 14. But the races had effectively ended four days earlier.

Democrat Al Gore and Republican George Bush became the presumptive nominees when challengers Bill Bradley and John McCain dropped out, shortly after losses on Super Tuesday, March 7.

In 2004, Florida Democrats voted March 9 - Bush had no serious competitor. But John Kerry's last challenger, John Edwards, had dropped out six days earlier, after Super Tuesday, March 2.

Last year, the Florida lawmakers changed the state's presidential primary date to Jan. 29 to prevent that from happening again.

But once again, there are problems. This time, according to the national parties, it's too early. Both parties say states should hold primaries no earlier than Feb. 5.

Florida, in their view, is jumping ahead in line.

As a result, the national parties have penalized the state's delegations to their national nominating conventions - the Democratic National Convention in Denver in late August, and the Republican National Convention in Minnesota in early September.

The national Democrats eliminated Florida's delegation entirely, and the Republicans cut it in half.

That's not just a matter of how many politicos get to go to a party. Here's why it matters to you:

When you vote in a presidential primary, you aren't voting directly for a candidate. It's a bit like voting in the presidential general election, in which you vote for a slate of Electoral College electors.

In the primary, your vote is used to divide the state's national convention delegates among the candidates. When those delegates go to the convention and vote for the candidate they're assigned to, they're putting your primary vote into effect.

The penalties mean your vote in the Democratic primary won't lead to any delegates that will help your candidate get the nomination. Your Republican primary vote will produce only half the intended number of delegates, cutting your voting power in half.

On the Democratic side, the primary "essentially won't count," Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean told a Florida newspaper after the party imposed the penalties.

In addition to the national party penalties, the leading Democratic candidates agreed to a demand from the sanctioned early primary states - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina - not to campaign in Florida.

You may wonder why the political parties can say when Florida should hold its primary.

The answer is they can't. But they do have the power to decide how to choose the presidential nominees, including seating convention delegates.

So Florida can hold its primary whenever it wants, but the parties decide whether to seat the delegates.

Some candidates in both parties have promised or hinted that they will restore the Florida convention delegations if they can.

But to have the power to do that, a candidate would first have to become the "presumptive nominee," or the sure winner. That is, the candidate would have to win enough primaries and delegates in other states to seal the nomination before the convention. Only then could the candidate order the Floridians seated.

In other words, Florida's votes could be counted - but not until after somebody wins without them.

In response to the penalty, the state Republican Party changed its rules to try to make up for losing half its delegates.

Normally, state party rules allow more than one GOP candidate to get at least some of the Florida delegates, if they get a certain percentage of the primary votes.

This year, the party said that if the penalty is enforced, the statewide winner will get all of the delegates in the reduced delegation. This means the Florida winner still gets a big prize, and partially makes up for the dilution of voting power.

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