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Absence Of Front-Runners Raises The Stakes In Florida

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 10, 2008

The closeness of the primaries makes the diverse electorate of Florida a huge factor in the unpredictable process of nominating presidential candidates.

Both parties were wrong to punish Florida for moving its primary up to Jan. 29. Republicans say they will count only half the Florida delegates and Democrats plan to count none.

But who cares how many delegates Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain won in New Hampshire? What matters is that both campaigns left the Granite State amid victory cheers.

Both Democratic Sen. Clinton and Republican Sen. McCain ran effective campaigns. McCain relied on blunt talk and Clinton finally showed she isn't a robot.

A turning point for Clinton came during informal interaction with voters. She was asked how she managed to hold up through the rigors of the campaign. Her unscripted answer, coming on the verge of tears, was interpreted not as weakness but as proof, especially to women voters, that she's human.

"I had this incredible moment of connection with the voters of New Hampshire," she explained after her victory.

By not campaigning in Florida, she guarantees she'll have no such moment here. There is no substitute for handshakes, eye contact, and the electricity of an enthusiastic crowd.

Another lesson of the 2008 campaigns has been the value of earning the support of independent voters.

In New Hampshire, as in the upcoming primary in Michigan, independents can choose which primary to vote in. That option rewards candidates who can broaden their appeal.

Florida should change its election rules to empower its many independents to vote in primaries. In the Jan. 29 election, independents who show up to vote on the tax amendment will be disenfranchised in the presidential races. Many of them won't even bother to show up.

Giving independents a voice raises the turnout and puts the parties more in touch with mainstream voters, and that puts issues and personalities ahead of partisan loyalty.

In New Hampshire, independents helped McCain top former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Romney's own backyard, despite Romney's accusation that McCain is a disloyal Republican.

The message from Iowa, with victories for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, was that voters want change, which conflicts with the new message from New Hampshire that voters value experience.

The fact is, voters in different states see things differently. And polls proved unreliable as many New Hampshire voters made up their minds at the very last minute.

Voters in the remaining January primaries - Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida - should ignore the polls and concentrate on the candidates themselves. And the candidates might be better off ignoring campaign strategists and party rules and focus instead on directly engaging voters.

One thing the New Hampshire vote shows is that American voters are still making up their minds.

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