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Questions Surround Giuliani's All-In Bet On Florida's Primary

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 13, 2008

BRADENTON - For Rudy Giuliani, it's all about Florida - and "it" means basically his entire candidacy. He's staking his race for president on the Jan. 29 Florida primary.

To some, it's a risky strategy based on questionable judgment. To others, it's the clever, unexpected move that will leave the former mayor of New York smelling like a rose.

"If it works, it's brilliant," said James "Dutch" Powers III, a Bradenton construction sales executive in a crowd of several hundred who packed a town hall meeting to see Giuliani on Saturday. "If it doesn't work, they're the village idiots."

Last week, while competitors were sending advertising money and campaign staff to Michigan, Nevada or South Carolina, where the next primaries will be, Giuliani went south.

He has moved three dozen paid staff members into Florida, to go with 16 already here. He told reporters Friday that he had $7 million in cash as of Dec. 31, and intends to spend virtually all of it in Florida.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, meanwhile, pulled his TV money from Florida last week to buy ads in Michigan.

The downside of the strategy is that Giuliani, once the front-runner in the overall race, is already seeing his poll numbers nose-dive as he loses one primary after another in states where he's not campaigning.

Even his Florida lead has shrunk - maybe vanished. While his opponents bask in headlines about primary wins, he's absent from the stories - at least the positive ones.

The slide may be affecting his fundraising. Last week, top staff members were asked to work without pay for the month.

The upside is that if he wins Florida, he will instantly become the leader in the race for convention delegates, who decide the outcome.

That could be enough to put him back in the front-runner spot just before the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primaries, where enough delegates to decide the race will be chosen.

"If he wins Florida, it resets the race completely," said Florida GOP political consultant Rick Wilson. "The very next day, he will raise back the money he spent" as new supporters get on board. "He'll be immediately catapulted into the front-runner spot."

According to a CNN count, Romney leads the delegate race with 30, to 21 for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 10 for Sen. John McCain, six for former Sen. Fred Thompson, two for U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and one each for Giuliani and U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter.

While other states divide their delegates among top contenders, Florida will award all 57 to the winner.

Campaign 'Was Prepared' For Losses

Giuliani's town hall meeting preceded a three-day bus tour of the state, which starts today and hits Clearwater and Lakeland on Monday. He intends to appear in Florida almost every day until Jan. 29, Florida strategist Karen Unger said in a conference call with reporters Saturday.

In the call, clearly intended to portray the campaign as unruffled in the face of what appear to be mounting problems, top strategist Brent Seaborn said the campaign "expected this race to tighten considerably."

He said the campaign "was prepared for what happened in Iowa and New Hampshire," where Giuliani failed to make the top three, and isn't worried about the likely low finishes to come in Michigan and South Carolina.

Those primaries are just "sorting out who's going to be the No. 1 contender to come down and face us in Florida," Seaborn said.

Giuliani's plan will work, experts say, as long as his opponents continue to divide up the wins.

Huckabee won Iowa, and McCain launched a comeback in New Hampshire that earned him, at least temporarily, the front-runner label.

In Michigan, Romney is challenging McCain. In South Carolina, McCain is challenging Huckabee, and a good debate performance has given Thompson momentum. Giuliani has been strong in Nevada, along with Romney.

The danger, acknowledged Giuliani fundraiser Al Austin of Tampa, would be one candidate piling up enough wins to overshadow Giuliani's all-in Florida bet. Austin thinks Romney has the best chance, but says it won't happen.

Money Could Be Biggest Problem

The string of bad news and good news for Giuliani, however, may be taking a toll.

Last week, polls showed three different leaders in Florida. McCain and Huckabee won in automated calling "robopolls," while Giuliani won a more traditional poll.

University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson, a Republican who formerly backed Giuliani, said the flaw in Giuliani's strategy is that he can't maintain his Florida position while losing everywhere else.

"It's an extraordinarily risky long-shot strategy - putting everything on one state," he said. "He's going to be a five-time loser before he gets to Florida."

Paulson said he switched to McCain after Giuliani's unimpressive performance in the YouTube debate in St. Petersburg on Nov. 28. But part of the reason, he said, is that he thinks Giuliani's gamble on Florida showed questionable judgment.

Money could be Giuliani's major problem.

In the conference call, the Giuliani operatives said he hasn't yet bought television time in the Feb. 5 states, even as he's spending himself down in Florida.

Some news stories, citing unnamed donors, say Giuliani is having trouble bringing in money.

But Austin denied that's happening. "There's a few people that say, 'I'd like to wait and see who wins,'" he said. "But most understand the strategy when I explain it to them. The fundraising is going according to plan."

Austin isn't worried about the one-state strategy. "These other guys are spending their time and resources attacking each other, leaving him Giuliani alone," he said. "They're going to come in here tired and without money."

If Giuliani doesn't win Florida, "he's dead," Paulson said. He said Giuliani needs a big win, by double digits, to "relaunch his campaign."

Supporter and former Gov. Bob Martinez of Tampa acknowledged that Giuliani "has got to win, obviously," but said a win by one vote will get Giuliani the headlines and the delegates he needs.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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