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This Year's Menu

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By JEROME R. STOCKFISCH The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 13, 2008

It's an economic powerhouse representing 4 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product and employing 9 percent of the U.S. work force.

The nation's restaurant industry is expected to notch sales of $558 billion in 2008, a 4.4 percent increase from last year. From greasy spoon to fast-food joint to candle-and-tablecloth supper club, eateries don't post such gains by resting on their laurels.

Restaurants are skilled at evolving as customers' tastes change, and industry insiders are spotting trends expected to surface in 2008 - or those that have already surfaced but will become more prominent.

Aaron Allen, founder and chief executive of Quantified Marketing Group, sees "the Wild, Wild West" in the industry as innovative up-and-coming restaurants challenge the established big-chain mentality.

The National Restaurant Association reports that Americans buy a meal or snack from a restaurant an average of 5.8 times a week, and annual spending on food away from home is $1,078 per person.

Dawn Sweeney, head of the restaurant group, points out that the industry is entering its 17th consecutive year of sales growth. "While the overall economy is slowing, the industry will still show respectable growth," she says.

Here are some of the trends Sweeney, Allen and other insiders are expecting to see more of in 2008.

TO YOUR HEALTH: It's a resolution repeated over and over: We're going to eat better. Americans appear to be acting on that vow, and restaurants are accommodating them with healthier fare and fresher ingredients. One locally based chain, Evos, insists you don't have to abandon that staple of the American diet - burger, fries and a shake - to eat well. The chain air-bakes its french fries, uses naturally raised hormone- and antibiotic-free beef, and offers shakes with 50 percent to 70 percent fewer calories. "This is where things are going," says Greg Jones, a Tampa lawyer and Evos' first franchisee.

SMALL IS BIG: Supersize that? Forget it. Hip dining spots are downsizing portions, allowing patrons to order a variety of cooked and raw tapas. "The trend of small plates is definitely hot, including offering tasting menus of small portions of food, wine or other alcohol beverages," says John Kinsella, president of the American Culinary Federation and senior chef instructor at Midwest Culinary Institute in Cincinnati.

SHORT AND SWEET: Coming in at No. 1 on the National Restaurant Association's "what's hot" survey of members of the American Culinary Federation was bite-sized desserts. From minicheesecakes to chocolate ravioli to neoparfaits known as verrines, chefs are showing off flavor and presentation while diners feel they can follow up their meal without overindulging.

(EXTREMELY) NARROW FOCUS: Perhaps it started with that Seattle coffee chain - you know, the one that seems to be on every street corner in large American cities. Allen, of Quantified Marketing Group, says single-product brands stand out in the restaurant world and can dominate a market niche they help carve. Evidence: Starbucks founder Howard Schultz's venture capital firm has reportedly pumped $27 million into Pinkberry, the red-hot Los Angeles-New York frozen yogurt maker with a cultlike following.

A TASTE FOR TRAVEL: Foodies who love to travel are combining their passions. High-end vacationers are jetting to Tuscany, Spain, France and other locales to learn to cook with the masters and visit classic restaurants. "This is really, really fun," says Jo-Ann Gaidosz, who runs Active Gourmet Holidays in Derby, Conn. "This is a big trend." From oenophiles' adventures in Napa Valley to bourbon tours in Kentucky, drink is also on the itinerary.

GROCERIES AND DINNER: Hospitals, office buildings, airports, stadiums and even grocery stores are nontraditional sites where restaurants are popping up. Blame (or credit) escalating real estate prices, dwindling availability of premium locations and a captive audience.

HOME BREWS: Craft beers, a perennial favorite in the restaurant association's survey of U.S. chefs, are the top "hot" item this year when it comes to beverages. That might be hard to rationalize in the Tampa Bay area, where local beers and brew pubs have struggled, but aficionados should check out Tampa Bay Brewing Co. in Ybor City or the Dunedin Brewery in north Pinellas County.

SO WHAT'S NOT HOT? While still popular, several items have dropped out of the top 20 on the restaurant association's hot list this year. They include bottled water, fresh herbs, exotic mushrooms and whole-grain items. Items considered formerly hot but now passe include fruit-flavored wine, star fruit, low-carb dough and tofu.

Reporter Jerome R. Stockfisch can be reached at (813) 259-8402 or jstockfisch@tampatrib.com.

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