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Giuliani Bus Tour Rolls Through Area

Tribune photo by JAY CONNER.

GOP presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani greets supporters at a meeting in Clearwater on Monday.

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 15, 2008

Updated: 01/15/2008 12:14 am

CLEARWATER - Rudy Giuliani brought his anti-tax, anti-terrorism campaign message to the Tampa Bay area Monday as polls showed the Florida primary, which Giuliani must win, turning into a four-way dead heat.

If accurate - Giuliani campaign officials don't dispute them - the polls indicate Sen. John McCain has surged strongly in the state, building on his New Hampshire primary win. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee also has gained ground, while Giuliani has dropped significantly.

Asked about the polls in a chat with reporters aboard the campaign bus, the former mayor of New York said, "Keep watching them. We're going to turn things around here.

"Right now, we've got Florida to ourselves," he noted, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, McCain and Huckabee battling it out in Michigan and South Carolina. "We've got two weeks to go. This is the beginning, not the end."

At every stop on the second day of his three-day Florida bus tour Monday, Giuliani mentioned that early voting had just started as his staff passed out fliers listing early voting sites and times.

He clearly hopes to bank a substantial lead before his opponents even begin campaigning here, which they will do Jan. 21 - two days after the South Carolina primary.

Giuliani also vowed that if he's the Republican nominee, he will make the Democratic candidates' boycott of Florida an issue in the general election campaign.

The leading Democratic candidates have pledged to avoid campaigning in Florida before its Jan. 29 primary because the date violates national party schedules.

He has to win the nomination first, though. Giuliani strategist Brent Seaborn stuck by the campaign's strategy of focusing almost solely on Florida among all the primaries before Feb. 5, Super Tuesday.

Front-runners have come and gone, and the race will shift again before it comes to Florida, he said. Giuliani, he said, will be ready when it does.

Polls Show Giuliani Trending Down

New polls of Florida Republican voters showed the problem he's up against here.

•A Quinnipiac University poll showed McCain narrowly edging ahead after gaining 9 percentage points since the last installment of the same poll Dec. 20: He got 22 percent, Giuliani got 20 percent, and Huckabee and Romney each won 19 percent.

•A Rasmussen Reports poll showed the race even tighter: McCain with 19 percent, Giuliani with 18 percent, Romney with 18 percent and Huckabee with 17 percent.

Statistically, the polls show four-way ties because the margins of error are larger than the spread among the candidates.

They made clear, though, that Giuliani has lost standing in a state where he led by up to 10 points in polls for the last half of 2007.

Meanwhile, a Washington Post/ABC News poll showed McCain moving in to first place nationwide and Giuliani dropping to fourth. McCain got 28 percent in the poll, Huckabee 20 percent, Romney 19 percent and Giuliani 15 percent.

"Obviously, you'd always rather be ahead than behind in these things," Seaborn said. "We always knew this would be hardest part of our schedule, the darkest days, after Iowa and New Hampshire."

He noted that the race has changed front-runners more than once, and will do so again after Michigan and South Carolina.

Seaborn said he's confident Giuliani has a better volunteer and voter turnout machine than the others, and will be fresh on Jan. 29, while the others have been attacking each other.

"By the time the circus comes to town, we'll be looking at Rudy Giuliani versus a field of candidates all defined as somewhat imperfect."

'A Question Of National Security'

Giuliani made seven stops Monday, starting in Naples and finishing with a town hall meeting in Clearwater and a meet-and-greet at a Lakeland ice cream stand.

His message was about his tax proposal, which he says would be the largest tax cut in U.S. history, and staying tough - "on the offense" - in the war on terrorism. He said his tax proposal would establish three tax rates that he says would substantially cut income taxes and simplify filing.

"Presidential elections always come down to a question of national security and economic security," he told reporters on the bus.

Crowds were enthusiastic at most of the stops, swelled with retired New Yorkers - a group likely to be a major advantage for Giuliani in Florida.

"I'd feel safer with him as president than any other candidate, Republican or Democrat," said Bridget Spiess of Sarasota, a former New Yorker living in Sarasota. "I lived through many mayors of New York and he was the best."

To some, he has almost rock-star status.

"I can't believe I got to talk to him," said one woman after fighting her way through a crush in a Sarasota restaurant to get Giuliani's autograph.

Few candidates can make the kind of emotional claim on voters that Giuliani holds for some former New Yorkers.

Mitch Samuels of Cape Coral asked Giuliani about education in a town hall meeting in Fort Myers, but first reminded Giuliani they had met before: "You married us," he said.

Samuels and his wife, Christine, formerly of Brooklyn, were married in New York City Hall by Giuliani in 1998, one of about 200 weddings he performed as mayor, he said.

Some worried about his drop in the polls.

"It bothers me he's not getting better headlines," said Dale Gross, a St. Petersburg lawyer and GOP activist. "I hope he still comes through. I wish he'd done more in other states, but it's his strategy," said Gross, who attended Giuliani's Clearwater meeting.

Most supporters said they're confident.

"I think he's clearly going to carry Florida. That will bring him back into contention on an equal footing," said Joe Summonte of Sarasota.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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