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4-Way Race Puts Florida In Key Role

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 17, 2008

TAMPA - Mitt Romney's win Tuesday in Michigan keeps his candidacy alive for the Jan. 29 Florida primary, but further confuses the question of who's the front-runner in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

That only enhances the role Florida voters will play in settling the question, experts and some campaign advisers said Wednesday.

It's also a boost for Rudy Giuliani's often criticized strategy of relying on a Florida win, because it cuts the chances that a single candidate will emerge as his strongest challenger here.

But while the GOP race appeared to be building in a crescendo toward Florida, the Democratic leaders, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, sank into an argument Tuesday over which one has broken, or might break, their pledge to ignore the two biggest primaries before Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

All the leading Democrats vowed to boycott Florida and Michigan for moving their primaries up earlier than the party schedule allows.

The Obama campaign sent supporters a message hinting that Clinton was considering campaigning in Florida during the weekend before the Jan. 29 primary. The message also called the Florida primary meaningless.

"Its outcome has no bearing on the nomination contest," the campaign wrote. "Neither the Florida nor Michigan primaries are playing any role in deciding the Democratic nominee."

In response, Clinton denied plans to campaign in Florida. But while she reaffirmed her own commitment to the boycott pledge, she blasted Obama for suggesting that Florida voters don't count.

"It is disappointing to hear a major Democratic presidential candidate tell the voters of ANY state that their voices aren't important," said Clinton's campaign memo.

Obama's accusation of Clinton's Florida plans stemmed from reports the Clinton campaign asked about the availability of the Miami Beach Convention Center for a rally Jan. 27, a day she is to hold a fundraiser in South Florida.

Doug Tober, the center's general manager, refused to confirm or deny that.

Clinton denied plans to campaign here but said Obama winked as his supporters ran radio ads in Michigan urging Democrats to vote "uncommitted" in the primary, where only her name was on the ballot.

Squabbling Upsets Supporters

The situation is bitterly frustrating for Florida supporters of the two candidates. "I'm extremely frustrated," said Obama fundraiser Kirk Wagar of Miami. "Every place Barack has gone to deliver his message, we've done well. To think of what could have happened if we'd had a primary here."

The Florida Democratic Party disputed Obama's contention that the state's primary won't count. It will be "an open and fair election with all of the major candidates appearing on the ballot," party chairwoman Karen Thurman said in a statement responding to Obama.

She said about 500,000 mostly white Democrats voted in Iowa and New Hampshire, but more than 1 million will vote in Florida. "They're going to send a message to the nation that no one can ignore," Thurman said.

With a Michigan win under his belt, Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, will restart his Florida TV advertising today, said his chairman, veteran state party leader Al Cardenas.

Cardenas said Romney's win in Michigan proves he can do well in "purple states" in the general election and makes him the leader in the race for delegates and total popular votes among Republicans.

"As the campaign begins to settle in and the press begins to count delegates rather than states," Romney will become "the consensus candidate," Cardenas said.

But by blunting Arizona Sen. McCain's momentum, the Michigan outcome also keeps alive former New York City Mayor Giuliani's hope to reclaim the front-runner spot with a Florida win.

"The fact that you've now had three primaries and three different winners shows Mayor Giuliani was correct in the strategy of focusing on Florida and the states that immediately follow it," said spokesman Elliott Bundy. He said the Florida winner will become the overall delegate leader.

Polling has suggested a four-way tie in Florida among Giuliani, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, McCain and Romney, as the GOP field continues to divide up primary wins rather than yielding to any one leader.

Front-Runner Status Fluid

Political media strategist Adam Goodman of Tampa said McCain could have made himself the clear front-runner with wins in Michigan and South Carolina. Now, he said, the South Carolina winner, whoever it is, is likely to become Giuliani's chief challenger in Florida. Even Huckabee "could do the unimaginable - win Florida with no trappings or money or organization" based on a South Carolina win, Goodman said.

"This is a campaign where every day is a week and every week is an election," he said.

McCain's campaign was nearly moribund for much of the summer and fall, but he surged virtually overnight after his New Hampshire win. In polls, he vaulted from near the bottom of the pack to a lead nationally and to a tie for the lead in Florida.

He's now replacing staff members laid off in July. He will be in Florida immediately after Saturday's South Carolina primary, as the other Republicans will, and will bring along a big gun - supporter Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn.

A Democrat disaffected from his party, Lieberman is highly popular in South Florida's Jewish community for his support of Israel, and in the Cuban exile community for his opposition to Castro.

The climate for McCain in Florida "has changed in a way I've never seen before. It takes my breath away," said backer Brian Ballard of Tallahassee. "Six months ago, I was a pretty lonely guy. Now I can't work for people calling me and asking if they can volunteer or contribute."

He said Romney's Michigan win was predictable and won't slow McCain's momentum.

For any candidate, Goodman said, a Florida win will amount to "a Super Tuesday political ad worth more than $25 million, an amount of money no campaign's going to have."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com

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