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Faint Winds Of Change Felt By Some In Cuba

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By CAROL J. WILLIAMS, Los Angeles Times

Published: January 20, 2008

MIAMI - Cubans waited hours in line for tickets, packed Havana's cinemas and watched with rapt attention as "The Lives of Others," a chilling account of East German secret-police repression of communism's doubters, arrived in the Cuban capital in December.

Was the debut of the Academy Award-winning film two years after its release another signal that Cuba's communist leaders are open to reform? Or was the cinematic snapshot of life two decades ago and half a world away more reflective of their confidence that Cubans wouldn't see themselves in the picture?

Analysts of the secretive Cuban power structure see signs of modest political and economic change emerging on the island in the 18 months since an ailing Fidel Castro temporarily ceded power to his brother, Raul, and retreated to pen his thoughts and memoirs.

The most radical transition might come as soon as this spring, with Fidel Castro, 81, hinting that he might relinquish the Cuban presidency after 49 years as supreme leader of the Marxist-Leninist state he created.

In a letter read on state-run television in late December, Castro caused a stir by saying he wouldn't "cling to positions" or "obstruct the path of younger people" aspiring to lead Cuba.

He didn't demur, however, when his name was again included on the slate of Communist Party candidates for the National Assembly to be rubber-stamped in an election today.

Those familiar with the Havana hierarchy predict that the elder Castro will take his seat in the National Assembly when it convenes in March but will decline another five-year stint as head of state.

Jaime Suchlicki, director of the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, sees the unusual airings and musings as "tokens of liberalization" that signal an attempt to tinker with a failed system rather than reform it.

Nonetheless, Suchlicki shares the expectation of other Cuba watchers that if Fidel Castro hasn't fully recovered his health and vigor by the March assembly opening, he and his brother Raul, who is 76, will make way for a younger head of state.

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