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Florida's In Political Limelight

Tribune photo by JULIE BUSCH

Florida is the state that will make or break Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign, experts say

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By WILLIAM MARCH and BILLY HOUSE, The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 21, 2008

NEW PORT RICHEY - The battle for Florida has begun.

"We're right in the middle of it now - this is what we've been waiting for," Rudy Giuliani told a shouting, chanting crowd here Sunday.

As the other GOP candidates began arriving in Florida to join him, the nation's eyes turned to the Jan. 29 Sunshine State primary.

On the Republican side, Florida won't decide the contest, but probably will determine who's left to fight for Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

For Giuliani, who has sunk to the bottom of the pack elsewhere while focusing his campaign solely on Florida, it's a must-win to keep his candidacy alive.

For Mitt Romney, so far unable to win a strongly contested state since Michigan, it's his route back into the top tier of candidates. For Mike Huckabee, a win would revive the hopes that sprang from his Iowa win but have wilted since.

For John McCain, a win would make him something the race hasn't yet had: a clear front-runner, with uncontested momentum going into Super Tuesday.

But McCain faces a voter landscape he hasn't seen before - a closed primary in which only registered Republicans can vote, depriving McCain of the independents who provided the margin of victory in his wins.

The candidates know what's at stake.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who had pulled out of South Carolina, didn't even stay in Nevada long enough to celebrate his win in caucuses Saturday. He made his victory statement from Jacksonville on Saturday night.

He starts a bus tour there this morning that will hit Sarasota on Tuesday night.

McCain begins a bus tour in Miami this morning, expecting to hit the Tampa Bay area late this week. On Sunday, the Arizona senator announced the opening of six Florida offices, including one in Tampa.

Giuliani, the former New York City mayor who was on a virtually continuous tour of Florida the past two weeks, will roll his buses to Orlando today and then to South Florida.

Huckabee will arrive in Orlando on Monday afternoon, but won't do public campaigning until Tuesday. He's taking time out for a fundraiser Sunday in Texas and events Monday in Atlanta.

Among the leading candidates, only Fred Thompson, a former senator from Tennessee, has announced no campaign plans for Florida, as speculation mounted about his future in the race.

Clinton Leads Obama In Florida

On the Democratic side there's one round left to fight, in South Carolina on Saturday, before the Florida primary.

But Saturday's Nevada result means that race, too, could find its front-runner in Florida.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, the senator from New York who has surged back after Barack Obama's Iowa win, managed a close win there. Obama, however, contends he won the most delegates because of complicated party rules.

If Obama wins in South Carolina, where he has maintained a solid lead in a state with a heavy concentration of black voters, that race could come to Florida just as unsettled as the GOP race.

Clinton's lead over Obama in Florida has narrowed - to single digits in one poll - even while she has surged nationally.

But like McCain, Obama, the senator from Illinois who has drawn big numbers of independent voters, often young ones, may also suffer from the closed primary system.

Obama has declared the Florida vote doesn't matter. Even a Florida congressman who backs him, U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler of Boca Raton, said the same in a conference call with reporters last week, to the dismay of state Democrats.

Because the two aren't campaigning here, "the race in Florida won't be about television ads or who can pander the best - it will be about which candidate people think has the best national message," said Democratic Party spokesman Mark Bubriski, responding to Wexler's comments.

Florida may be a no-lose proposition for Obama, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. If he loses here, he can dismiss the primary as meaningless.

'It's Do Or Die' For Giuliani

While the Democratic race here will award no delegates, the 57 Republican delegates at stake will represent the biggest single prize so far, besides the huge momentum boost.

"If anyone wants to stop John McCain, they better do it in Florida," Brown said.

Otherwise, Romney might be the only candidate left to seriously challenge McCain going into Feb. 5, Brown said.

For Giuliani, "It's do or die," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

If Giuliani loses here, he is expected to continue through the Feb. 5 primaries, but he'll be severely wounded and diminished, the analysts agreed.

Before McCain's South Carolina win, a Quinnipiac poll last week showed McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee in a statistical dead-heat in Florida, and a state Chamber of Commerce poll showed McCain, Giuliani and Romney all within a point of each other, with Huckabee in fourth place.

Those numbers represented a major advance for McCain and a decline for Giuliani.

Romney and Giuliani have built by far the strongest organizations in the state - Romney has been at work here for more than a year.

The challenge facing them all is that Florida will be the biggest and most diverse state to vote so far, said Frank Luntz, a pollster and focus-group expert.

Each candidate will have appeal in some, but not all, voter groups and geographic areas.

Huckabee, despite his setback in South Carolina, remains a player who will do well in the conservative, religious Panhandle, Luntz said. He also noted that in South Carolina, Huckabee beat McCain among older voters, a key Florida voting bloc.

McCain is likely to run well in areas heavy with military personnel, and Giuliani in retiree havens laden with former New Yorkers. Romney has strength in the Tampa Bay area and the Interstate 4 corridor.

Giuliani is in a pitched battle with McCain for support from Miami's Cuban-Americans. They lean toward Giuliani, South Florida political experts have said. But McCain may get help from a prominent endorser, Sen. Joe Lieberman, Ind.-Conn., whose tough anti-Castro stance makes him popular among Cuban exiles, while he also has strong appeal to the large South Florida Jewish communities.

Giuliani, realizing his candidacy is on the line, has pulled out the stops to appeal to Florida voters.

He has heavily emphasized that he's the only Republican committed to a national insurance catastrophe fund, using it in television ads and telling the crowd in New Port Richey the nation needs a president "that understands the need for a national catastrophic fund so you can get insurance on your homes."

Reporter William March can be

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