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Bolts Beat: Decision Looming: Buy Or Sell?

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By ERIK ERLENDSSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 21, 2008

TAMPA - The Lightning left the chilly Canadian air late Saturday to return to warmer climates early Sunday.

It kind of sums up how Tampa Bay has played this year - either hot or cold, no in between.

After winning consecutive games during the weekend for the first time since a three-game winning streak at the start of December, the Lightning at least have given themselves a chance to think about the playoffs.

The Southeast Division has been so bad this year that even the last-place team in the conference has a shot at being a division champion. Tampa Bay is within seven points of Carolina for first place and considering the number of division games left to play (12), including eight consecutive to close the season, there is a chance.

And with the expected return this week of defenseman Dan Boyle, it will be like making a major deal at the trade deadline.

But what will the Lightning be when it comes to the Feb. 26 trade deadline, buyers or sellers?

Unless they are locked into a playoff spot at the time, they should be sellers. They can't afford to be sitting 12th in the conference or third in the division and about six points out of a playoff spot, hope to make the postseason and be on the outside looking in at the end of the season.

Discussions have taken place internally and a plan is in place on how to deal with the second half, with the plan being run past the current owners - Palace Sports and Entertainment - and the potential new owner, Oren Koules and his OK Hockey group.

Would it be better for the Lightning to be a seller and trade some of their assets to stock up on some draft picks and prospects for what is considered a very strong draft this summer?

I say yes. During the past few seasons, Tampa Bay has been a buyer, and deservedly so. But the drawback of that is players such as Pavel Kubina and others have left the organization without any compensation. And to acquire such players as Ruslan Fedotenko, Cory Stillman, Darryl Sydor, Vinny Prospal and Chris Gratton, it has taken high-level draft picks or prospects.

It's a tough sell to the fans who pay good money to watch games. But it might be the best move for the franchise down the road, and I don't mean five years from now.

The team's minor-league system is a mess; just ask the fans in Norfolk. There are no top-level forward prospects playing in the organization and some of the highly regarded defensive picks - notably Mike Egener and Andy Rogers - have not progressed.

I believe it wouldn't take much to get this team back on top soon. There is a strong core of Vinny Lecavalier, Brad Richards, Marty St. Louis and Boyle - the Fantasick Four, as the team has touted them - and a solid young defense that should only get better.

The major question: Do you keep all four? The three forwards take up nearly $20 million in salary cap space and Boyle likely will command $6-$7 million, provided he comes back healthy following two wrist surgeries.

Do you keep all four at a cap hit around $26-$27 million? And that doesn't even take into account Lecavalier has one year left on his deal after this season and could garner as much as $9-$10 million on the open market.

So perhaps the plan of action should be to be a seller at next month's trade deadline - possibly moving one of the big four - and gain some picks and prospects and rebuild/retool at the same time.

In the short term, it will be hard to swallow. But take the draft picks to find some blue-chip prospects in the draft and use the salary cap space to bring in some free agents, especially a bona fide scoring winger to play on the second line.

Make no mistake, this franchise is at a crossroads right now.

Which route are they going to take?

OWNERSHIP UPDATE: All remains quiet on the sale of the franchise, but word through the grapevine continues to point toward everything being on track as negotiations continue. It is close to the point where both sides hoped to have a purchase agreement in place, but there is no indication anything is imminent.

There is a board of governors meeting scheduled to take place at this weekend's All-Star Game, but don't expect the sale to be on the agenda.

No doubt, however, that Commissioner Gary Bettman will be able to provide some sort of update when he holds his annual State of the Game address to the media.

NUTS AND BOLTS: Things have not gone well for goalie Marc Denis since he was sent down to the AHL. In eight starts with Norfolk, he is 1-6 with a shootout loss, a 3.13 goals-against average and an .882 save percentage. To make matters worse for Denis, Jonathan Boutin made his first start in net since Denis was sent down and pitched a shutout against Wilkes-Barre on Saturday. ... Defenseman Filip Kuba, who set career highs last season with 15 goals and 37 points, has only three goals and 17 points this season. He has not scored a goal since Dec. 4 and has one point in the past 17 games.

Reporter Erik Erlendsson can be reached at (813) 259-7835 or eerlendsson@tampatrib.com.

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