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Romney Vaults To Florida Lead, Poll Reports

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 25, 2008

Updated: 01/25/2008 12:13 am

TAMPA - A new poll shows Mitt Romney jumping to a lead in Florida's Republican presidential primary, trailed closely by John McCain, with Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee trailing.

As Florida approaches its primary vote Tuesday, the poll is the latest evidence that Giuliani's strategy of concentrating his campaign solely on Florida may have backfired. It marks the first time Romney has led in one of the more respected polls of voters in the Florida GOP primary.

On the Democratic side, the poll shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead over Barack Obama - Clinton 47 percent, Obama 25 percent, John Edwards 16 percent, 2 percent for Dennis Kucinich, who said Thursday he was dropping out, and 10 percent undecided.

The GOP numbers are Romney 30 percent, McCain 26 percent, Giuliani 18 percent, Huckabee 13 percent, Ron Paul 3 percent and 10 percent undecided.

Because the poll's error margin is 5 percentage points, Romney's four-point lead over McCain could be considered a statistical tie.

However, pollster Brad Coker of Mason Dixon Polling & Research, which did the poll for The Tribune and other news agencies, called it a "narrow lead" based partly on how the candidates' standings in the race have changed in recent weeks.

Coker attributed Romney's advance in the numbers to a strong showing in the Tampa Bay area and Southwest Florida.

Romney has been organizing in Florida for more than a year - longer than Giuliani - and has sustained his effort throughout the campaign. McCain, by comparison, slowed or halted organizing efforts here when his campaign ran into financial trouble last summer.

Giuliani's strength in the poll, meanwhile, was in South Florida, particularly the anti-Castro Cuban community, Coker said.

Experts have said the shift in public concern from national security issues to the economy could help Romney, with his business background.

In recent days, all the candidates, including Giuliani and McCain, have been increasing emphasis on the economy in their campaigns.

Romney spokeswoman Kristy Campbell said the poll indicates his message "is resonating with Floridians," but added that the race "is extremely close and very competitive with just days remaining."

Asked whether the shift to economic issues has hurt McCain, spokeswoman Melissa Shuffield said the numbers indicate that McCain "is gaining support in Florida. Floridians are looking for someone who doesn't waver on the issues."

A Giuliani spokesman responded by pointing to numerous polls that have been published in the past week, many showing varying outcomes.

"These latest rounds of fluctuating public polls indicate that the race is wide-open and public polling is volatile," spokesman Elliott Bundy said.

Bundy also noted that this poll and others have shown Giuliani's supporters to be more committed, in what Coker acknowledged is a "very volatile race."

A couple of polls last week showed Giuliani in a three-way or four-way tie for the lead. Nearly all, however, have shown him losing ground as the other candidates racked up positive headlines from primary wins in other states.

The Democratic candidates' boycott of Florida, Coker said, has killed Obama's chances in Florida. By preventing the Illinois senator from campaigning here, "It has locked up the numbers since last summer," preserving Clinton's lead in the state, he said.

"His strength is using his charisma to energize people to organize and turn out," Coker said. "He really hasn't been able to do that."

The Democratic primary electorate on Tuesday, Coker said, is likely to be heavy on women and older people, who tend to favor Clinton.
Mason Dixon Polling & Research has been polling in Florida for decades, and is considered more reliable than many polls of Florida published in recent weeks.

The past few weeks have seen an explosion of published polls, some with little track record of polling in Florida, and some using techniques including automated dialing that pollsters say are not the most reliable.

Mason Dixon's poll was based on telephone interviews Jan. 21-23 with 400 randomly chosen likely voters in each primary.

Another poll published by other newspapers Wednesday showed McCain leading Romney, but also within the margin of error: McCain 25 percent, Romney 23 percent, Giuliani and Huckabee 15 percent each.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com

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