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Yes On 1 Lacks 60% Threshold, Poll Shows

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By CATHERINE DOLINSKI, The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 26, 2008

Updated: 01/26/2008 12:12 am

TALLAHASSEE - Only 51 percent of likely voters said this week that they plan to vote for Amendment 1, 9 percentage points short of the threshold for passing it.

That razor-thin majority pins the fate of the proposed property-tax cut on turnout at the polls and late-hour decisions made by the 13 percent of voters who remain as-yet undecided.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research released results Friday of its Jan. 21-23 phone survey of 400 GOP voters, 400 Democratic voters and 200 independent voters likely to participate in Tuesday's election. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The poll contained one question: whether voters would choose "yes" or "no" on Amendment 1, which would create a second homestead exemption and allow homestead property owners to transfer up to $500,000 of their Save Our Homes tax benefit to their next primary home. The proposal also includes a tangible personal property exemption for businesses and caps rises in assessments of nonhomestead properties.

All told, 51 percent would vote yes, 36 would vote no and 13 percent are undecided, the poll shows. That could change, however, because Mason-Dixon also bases its analysis on likely voter turnout by party.
Amendment 1 earned a 56 percent approval rating in November, with roughly even support among Democrats and Republicans. The latest poll shows 61 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for the tax cut, compared with only 37 percent of Democrats.

A 51 percent overall approval rating assumes that turnout will reflect voter participation in Florida's 2006 primary election: roughly 40 percent Democrats, 50 percent Republicans and 10 percent independents.

If turnout follows 2004 primary patterns, when Democratic turnout was heavier, total support for Amendment 1 would drop to 50 percent, Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker explained. With a larger than usual GOP turnout, approval could climb to 53 percent.

That's not counting the 13 percent of undecided voters, whose ultimate decisions will play a key role. Twelve percent of Republicans and Democrats said they were undecided, as did 17 percent of independent voters.

Gov. Charlie Crist, in Tampa on Friday to promote the amendment, said he's going to win over those undecideds by explaining the amendment and telling them "that if they want a property tax cut, all they have to do is vote 'yes' on Tuesday. Nothing could be simpler than that."

Internal polling by Yes On 1, the Realtor-backed group working with Crist, shows support for the measure hovering consistently at 60 percent, a spokeswoman said. The group has raised more than $4.4 million since September, election records show.

Asked Friday about Mason-Dixon's poll figures, Crist remained characteristically optimistic, saying he is confident the measure will pass.

Opposition Gaining Acceptance

The declining support by Mason-Dixon's measure reflects a change among Democratic voters. Since November, teachers and public employee unions have railed against Amendment 1's potential effects on education and government services in phone calls, advertisements and mass mailings. Some local governments are likewise working against the proposal.

"It's your traditional Democratic constituency," said Darryl Paulson, a Republican and political scientist at the University of South Florida campus in St. Petersburg. "Several things are killing this right now: One is the 60 percent threshold, another is the fact that there is such organized opposition from government and unions. Then there are the conservatives in the Republican Party opposing this, the Marco Rubio faction that wants to see their issue on the ballot."

House Speaker Rubio has supported the Amendment 1 campaign but only grudgingly, saying it does not accomplish enough. Since its passage, he has thrown his support behind a more dramatic 1.35 percent cap on all property taxes.

Tactics Faulted

Republican Sen. Mike Fasano of New Port Richey, who chairs the Yes On 1 campaign, cried foul over the tactics of some who oppose it.

"What concerns me is, the League of Cities is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to convince people to vote against the tax cut, and they're using taxpayer money to do it," he said. "The league ought be ashamed of themselves."

John Thomas, director of league's policy and political affairs, said efforts to defeat Amendment 1 have not drawn from the league's taxpayer-funded dues from their member cities. He declined to say how much the league has spent, but said 100 percent comes from other sources of revenue, such as conferences and fees charged to exhibitors at events.

Fasano also faulted anti-amendment groups that continue to tout a $3 billion cost to schools even though the state analysts who initially projected that figure scaled it back in December to $1.5 billion, because of the declining real estate market.

"I think most people are trying to say now it's a range," said Karen Woodall, who chairs an anti-amendment group that recently sent out mailers that included the $3 billion figure. "It's all conjecture ... and it's their figures we're using; we didn't make them up."

Woodall's group, Florida Is Our Home, has raised more than $1 million since Dec. 14, state election records show, including a $40,000 contribution on Thursday from the Florida Democratic Party.

So far, more Republicans have voted early or by absentee ballot than Democrats this month. Although Republicans retain a comfortable edge in absentee voting, Democrats are leading in early voting - contrary to historical trends as well as recent predictions, given national Democrats' boycott of Florida's moved-up primary.

Woodall said the anti-amendment campaign must press on, right through Tuesday.

"This is still wide-open," she said. "We can pull this off, it we can turn our membership out."

News Channel 8 reporter Michael Egger contributed to this story. Reporter Catherine Dolinski can be reached at (850) 222-8382 or cdolinski@tampatrib.com.

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