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Black Voter Turnout Lags

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By KAREN BRANCH-BRIOSO, The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 27, 2008

Updated: 01/26/2008 11:23 pm

TAMPA - Cynthia Mann of East Tampa hit the polls early last week to cast her vote for Barack Obama.

Her excitement seemed contagious. Or was it?

"Some people I know, they are all staying home," said Mann, 56, whose not-so-subtle prodding hasn't moved those friends to cast ballots in Florida's presidential primary.

"I'm saying, 'Go vote! Go vote!' People died so I can vote. There's no way I'm not going to do it."

Yet among black voters, turnout has trailed significantly in early voting, which ended Saturday. A Tribune analysis of the 41,280 ballots cast in Hillsborough County through Thursday night showed that 7 percent of county voters had cast early ballots or returned absentees, and less than 4 percent of registered black voters had done so.

Early turnout was even lower in Pinellas County. Overall, 5.6 percent of the county's voters had cast early ballots or returned absentees as of midday Friday. Just 2 percent of the voters who identify themselves as black had cast early ballots or absentees.

That's happening even as the nation is seeing a presidential campaign that, for the first time, is likely to produce a Democratic nominee who is either female or black.

But the major Democratic candidates are steering clear of Florida after the national party punished the state for scheduling its primary a week earlier than party rules allow. And that's bound to hurt turnout, said Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida political science professor.

Florida's punishment: Its Democratic convention delegates won't count.

"No question about it, if you constantly hear that your votes are not going to count, that message resonates, and it resonates much more with African-Americans than whites," MacManus said. "That tracks back to the 2000 presidential election, when it was widely publicized that more black votes were invalidated because of improper completion of the ballot."

Interest And Inspiration

Still, the historic campaign is inspiring many black voters, such as Mann and David Wells.

Wells, 48, is a Port Manatee dockworker who lives in Tampa's Jackson Heights. Finances are tight. He's worried about a recession. But he has high hopes that the candidate he chose Wednesday - Hillary Rodham Clinton or Obama, he won't say which - will turn that around. "Everything's costing so much. We just need change," said Wells, who added that both candidates inspired him. "It's a first for both - as a woman and an African-American. It's a fantastic thing. Both of those Democrats brought me out."

While that race has prompted record turnouts in other states' caucuses and primaries, many agree with MacManus and fear that Florida's turnout may be diminished by the Democratic National Committee's decision to strip Florida of all its delegates in the nominating convention.

The GOP opted to slice Florida's delegate count in half - and in that race-without-a-front-runner, competition for even half the delegates has prompted vigorous campaigning here. While GOP candidates barnstorm the state and plaster polling sites with signs, the Democratic boycott here has created a void of activity that could dampen turnout.

That may not be because of any lack of interest in the Democratic campaign.

"I think there's high interest," said Otis Anthony, host of a Sunday political call-in show on WMNF, 88.5 FM, who said his callers seem moved by the possibility Obama could win the Democratic nomination - and even the presidency.

"I think, however, it's going to be hard to ignore the fact the lack of serious campaigning is going to hurt the turnout somewhat."

But Anthony offers another possibility. Obama's win Saturday in South Carolina could motivate Floridians to show up in greater numbers Tuesday: "I think it's going to boost black voter turnout in Florida."

The Get-Out-The-Vote Effort

Meanwhile, grass-roots groups are hitting the streets in force this weekend to get out the vote on election day. The Democratic candidates aren't around. But their volunteers will be knocking on doors and waving signs, just as they did at the local Martin Luther King Jr. Day parades Monday.

Ana Cruz, spokeswoman of an independent group of Clinton supporters dubbed FloridaforHillary.com, said, "We're really focusing on visibility, maybe sign-waving."

A local independent group of Obama supporters, known as Tampa Bay O-Train, knocked on doors in Tampa's College Hill neighborhood and in Temple Terrace.

"We're trying to target the African-American community," said Sheila Cherizard, 34, a physician on leave from her residency to volunteer for Tampa Bay O-Train.

"This is just a last-minute effort to get the vote out."

Statewide polls suggest that's good strategy for supporters of Obama, who is significantly trailing Clinton in Florida among most every demographic group except for black voters. A Mason-Dixon Florida poll of 400 likely Democratic voters conducted Monday through Wednesday showed that Obama held a lopsided 71 percent to 17 percent advantage over Clinton among blacks.

Among black elected officials, there's more of an even split. According to Politico .com, among congressional Black Caucus members, 17 have endorsed Obama and 16 - including all three caucus members from Florida - are backing Clinton. Three others are supporting former Sen. John Edwards.

In Tampa, former state Sen. Les Miller and his wife, Tampa City Council chairwoman Gwen Miller, are backing Obama. Clinton has the support of state Sen. Arthenia Joyner, D-Tampa, and of Tampa City Councilman Tom Scott.

Scott said he's heard from many a voter left disinterested in the primary because of the DNC decision: "A lot of people say, 'It doesn't make sense. If your vote's not going to count, why go out and vote?'"

Scott, who voted a week ago, is talking up primary participation at church, the 34th Street Church of God, where he is senior pastor. Gwen Miller said she's requesting absentee ballots for some of the elderly women at her church. Joyner, suffering from a stomach bug, said she's phoning people from bed to urge them to vote.

The Florida Sentinel Bulletin, a Tampa newspaper targeted to black readers, isn't taking sides between the two candidates. For weeks, it has editorialized heavily for one position: Go vote.

Parker Lewis, 28, didn't need to be told.

Since Obama made his stirring keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, Lewis has been following the Illinois senator's political rise. He voted for Obama on Wednesday at the College Hill branch library.

"First, it was the color thing," Lewis said of Obama's draw. "Then it was his views. It's pretty much the change thing."

He said he talks about Obama all the time. But he said there seems to be a lack of interest, in general, in the poorest neighborhoods.

He said he's noticed greater interest among black women, with many leaning to Clinton.

Elaine Jones of Sulphur Springs wouldn't say which candidate she chose as she left the early voting site at the College Hill library Wednesday. She did say she chose between Clinton and Obama.

"To tell you the truth, I voted for who I voted because it was a first-time thing," said Jones, 68, a retired social worker who said many of the people in her community are choosing Clinton because they fear Obama can't win a general election.

Then she smiled: "If I did vote for him right now, it's not because I think he's going to win the general election. But I want to go on record, it looks good."

Reporter Karen Branch-Brioso can be reached at (813) 259-7815.

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