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How to survive a recession

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By BOB WEINSTEIN, Special Sections correspondent

Published: January 27, 2008

Lately, chatter about a possible recession has been deafening. Whether the naysayers or optimists are right, no one knows. One thing is for sure, you're foolish to sit on the sidelines and wait for bad news to take you by surprise.

Whether or not we slip into a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, you ought to be prepared for the worst. That means understanding what's happening in the economy, your industry and the job marketplace that serves it. Equally important, you ought to take special measures to hold onto your job, and at the same time create a fallback position should you be laid off.

Signs of a weak economy

Confidence among manufacturing workers declined for the second consecutive month in December, according to the Hudson Employment Index. Hudson also reported that IT worker confidence waned for the third consecutive month in December.

Financial services firm Morgan Stanley said tighter credit has pushed the U.S. economy to the brink of a mild recession in the first half of 2008. The good news is that Morgan Stanley expects that the downturn will be comparatively mild and short.

Recession-free careers

Some industries and jobs are safer than others, according to Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business at the University of Central Florida in Orlando.

Technology, health care and education are three safe sectors, according to Snaith. That's because all three provide important products or services; and the demand for candidates far exceeds the supply of workers in each field.

Regardless of the economic climate, tech companies will continue to beef up their ranks. After going through several years of downsizing, technology industries are stronger than ever, says Snaith, "and hiring through this period will likely be unaffected. The importance of information and knowledge has given a second life to the IT sector. Anyone involved in technology that is providing essential needs such as communication, networking, security and Internet maintenance should have no problem securing good jobs."

Equally, the outlook for the sprawling health care sector is strong. The demand for registered nurses, pharmacists, respiratory therapists, physical therapists, dental hygienists, medical assistants, emergency medical technicians and paramedics, to name a few, will remain strong for the next decade at least.

Practically every state in the nation is short on secondary school teachers, especially mathematics and science teachers. A spokesperson for the American Federation of Teachers recently said it's particularly difficult recruiting and keeping teachers in districts where poverty, crime and behavior problems are rampant. He also noted that between 40 percent and 50 percent of teachers leave the profession within five years.

Jobs to avoid

Because of the slowdown in the housing sector, you'd be wise avoiding jobs in residential construction and real estate sales. In the Tampa area, segments of the retail sector, specifically home and building supplies will feel the effects of a slowdown," Snaith says. "Large chains such as Home Depot and Lowe's are likely to cut back on hiring."

Similarly, financial services firms in Florida that specialize in the real estate market (mortgage bankers and mortgage brokers), and the rest of the nation, are likely to hire cautiously — possibly even lay off workers, depending upon how hard the recession hits, Snaith cautions.

Recession strategies

There is no such thing as job security any longer. Even if you think that your job is secure and your company is in excellent financial shape, everyone is expendable — even presidents and CEOs. A realistic goal is to work toward career security, which is building a career in a strong, resilient industry where there is a constant demand for experienced workers, Snaith says. But even then, don't mistakenly think you can sit back on your laurels. Instead, you must stay current and constantly adjust to changes within your field.

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