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Experts Say Crist Now In Catbird Seat

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: January 31, 2008

Updated: 01/31/2008 12:22 am

TAMPA - John McCain became the Republican presidential front-runner, and Florida homeowners got a smidgen of property tax relief, but the big winner in Tuesday's Florida primary may have been Gov. Charlie Crist.

Crist, who's either the darling of fortune or has some of the world's best political instincts, was dealt two aces Tuesday.

His property tax proposal beat expectations to pass, and McCain, whom he endorsed in a last-minute, from-the-gut decision, won handily in a race that had been considered too close to call.

Crist is getting a good share of the credit for both, along with his ally, Sen. Mel Martinez, who endorsed McCain just before Crist did.

The big wins not only will increase Crist's national stature, but will solidify his control over the Florida Republican Party, experts and political insiders said.

Since his 2006 election, Crist has faced challenges, most subtle but increasingly overt, from conservatives unhappy over such policy positions as his climate change initiative and voter rights restoration for former felons.

There were indications Wednesday that such challenges may become more muted.

"I do think it makes a bit of a statement about where the party is," Martinez said in an interview Wednesday about the election results. "Maybe a more moderate direction on some issues."
State GOP chairman Jim Greer, appointed by Crist, underscored that.

"What last night demonstrates is that no one segment of the Republican Party controls the outcome," he said. "The governor has brought a breath of fresh air to governing, and any elected official needs to stand up and take notice of the governor's support."

Talk Of The V.P. Spot

Speculation may increase about a possible running mate position for Crist if he is portrayed nationally as the Southern governor who seemingly delivered the nation's fourth-largest state to his chosen primary candidate.

Crist hints it's unlikely, but won't rule it out, and the speculation itself enhances his political standing. He said Wednesday, as he has said before, only that he's "focused on Florida and the quality of life for our citizens."

Crist said he picked McCain because of his "enormous respect and trust" for someone he calls "a great American hero."

"Also I just like the guy," he added.

Asked whether the McCain win shows a change in the direction of the state GOP, he said, "It shows the party is a party that has a big tent. Hopefully we're a party that cares deeply about people's daily concerns, and I think it's a reflection of that."

Crist "rolled the dice and won on both of the issues he took a tough stand on," said University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson.

"If he had lost on both, he would be in dire straits today," said Paulson, a Republican who backed Crist in the 2006 primary for governor and McCain on Tuesday.

"Instead it will solidify his position and strength within the party, and his stature on the national level as well. It puts him in the race for the vice presidency."

Supporting Property Tax Relief
At least one of Crist's big election-day bets wasn't really a matter of choice.

He had staked himself out during his 2006 campaign to provide property tax relief.

"The measure on the ballot Tuesday was the card he was dealt by the Legislature, what they were willing to pass," noted veteran Florida GOP political strategist David Johnson.

An earlier amendment, providing more relief and more to the liking of Crist and many legislators, was thrown off the ballot by a judge who said the wording was deceptive.

With one of his two biggest campaign promises on the line, Crist reassembled his 2006 campaign team and raised more than $4 million - some from former political enemies - to get the new measure passed despite criticism that it didn't go far enough.

Crist As 'Head Of The Party'

His endorsement of McCain was a purely instinctive, spur-of-the-moment decision.

Crist said he made the decision the afternoon before he delivered it at a Pinellas County GOP fundraising dinner Saturday evening. McCain himself was surprised to learn of it just before dinner, he said.

Crist had dithered over whether to endorse any candidate, and was on the verge of endorsing Rudy Giuliani last fall, according to insider accounts and news reports that he doesn't deny.

Asked whether he considered the candidates' likelihood of winning in making his decision, Martinez said, "Apparently not much," citing late polls that showed Giuliani losing, but also showed McCain at best tied with Romney.

Johnson said Crist's win will "solidify" his control of the party.

After a tough, divisive 2006 primary fight against Tom Gallagher, a more conservative opponent, Crist hasn't had the level of control over the party wielded by his predecessor, former Gov. Jeb Bush.

His wins Tuesday "will help him when he goes to the Legislature because people know he can make things happen," said Johnson, who formerly worked for Bush and for Gallagher, and hasn't taken sides in the presidential race.

"Charlie Crist is the head of the party," Johnson said. "Anybody who still thought he was sharing that title was mistaken."

A sign of that may have shown up Wednesday.

Former state House Speaker Allan Bense, a leader in the party's conservative wing who backed Mitt Romney in the primary, had told reporters in a conference call Sunday that Crist's endorsement wouldn't help McCain with conservative Panhandle voters.

Wednesday, Bense apologized, telling reporters his remarks were inappropriate and that he expected to see Crist and apologize in person.

"I do think that the governor helped get Sen. McCain elected," Bense said. "I think that endorsement pushed him over the top and I congratulate him on it."

House Speaker Marco Rubio, who backed Mike Huckabee in the primary, has been most identified with conservative challenges to Crist, though Giuliani's state chairman, Attorney General Bill McCollum, has on occasion criticized the governor as "liberal" as well.

Rubio, who backs a more dramatic property tax reform proposal, paid only lip service to Amendment 1.

The Amendment 1 win "takes some off the air out of the Rubio proposal," Paulson said. "If this one had been defeated it would have made Rubio proposal more likely to get on the ballot and pass. Now you have at least some cuts on the table."

Rubio couldn't be reached for comment Wednesday.

Reporter Catherine Dolinski contributed to this report. Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch

@tampatrib.com

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