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Water Is Just Right For Storms

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By NEIL JOHNSON

The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 1, 2008

TAMPA - TAMPA - The first month of hurricane season is in the rear-view mirror without even the slightest hint of anxiety in the Atlantic.

The 2008 season has produced only Tropical Storm Arthur, which popped up May 31 in Central America.

But signs are piling up that the tropical Atlantic Ocean, cradle of hurricanes during the August and September height of the season, could be a more fertile breeding ground than normal in coming months.

Tropical waves emerging from Africa have been stronger in this early season than last year and Atlantic Ocean water temperatures between Africa and the Caribbean Sea ran higher than normal through June.

Water temperatures in much of the tropical Atlantic last month were about 1 degree above normal for June.

Those elements are important because warm water becomes fuel for hurricanes. Water temperatures will continue to rise through the September heart of the season.

Tropical waves are the seeds of storms that form moving west across the Atlantic. If those are stronger than normal, they are more likely to survive to become storms.

"That could be more ominous for late July and August," state meteorologist Ben Nelson said.

There are four tropical waves now - two in the Caribbean and two in the Atlantic. None show signs of becoming better organized. About 70 tropical waves move off the west coast of Africa each hurricane season.

Add to the warmer water and more vigorous tropical waves what appears to be less Saharan dust wafting off Africa this year, Nelson said.

Researchers think the African dust and dry air can help snuff out developing storms.

During June and much of July, most storms form in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. Those areas have proved barren so far.

Wind circling a low pressure area over the eastern United States during most of June created winds from the west over the Gulf and Caribbean. Those winds dampened storm chances, Nelson said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a season with 12 to 16 named storms with six to nine becoming hurricanes. Of those, three to five could become storms of Category 3 or stronger.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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