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U.S. Forecasters Are Closely Tracking 'Vigorous' African Wave

National Hurricane Center Graphic

A strong tropical wave is located over the extreme eastern Atlantic Ocean near the west coast of Africa.

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 1, 2008

TAMPA - Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center started tracking a tropical wave off Africa today, the first system of the season showing potential to develop.

The wave, a mass of thunderstorms around an area of low pressure, is heading west at 15 to 20 mph. Its winds are just over 25 mph.

Forecasters described the wave as "vigorous," and it already has a well-defined counterclockwise spin, a sign it could become better organized as it tracks across the Atlantic Ocean.

Between 70 and 80 tropical waves emerge from Africa each season and can become the seeds of hurricanes. Most never develop into tropical storms.

Still, the hurricane center has begun running forecast models on the wave. And though early runs can show wide variations, most predict the wave will curve north before reaching the Caribbean Sea.

Intensity forecasts vary, with some predicting the wave will become a hurricane within five days. Most project the wave will be no stronger than a tropical storm.

Though the wave is more than 4,000 miles from Miami, the hurricane center said forecasters will closely monitor it.

It is the only one of five tropical waves now moving across the Atlantic or Caribbean that shows any potential for development.

One day into the season's second month is fairly early for a hurricane to develop. Tropical waves tend to develop into storms during the height of the season in August and September, when conditions in the Atlantic are more favorable.

However, water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been about 1 degree higher in June than normal. Developing hurricanes feed on warm water.

Most storms in June and early July develop in the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean.

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