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Wave Off Africa Could Become Tropical Depression

Graphic from National Hurricane Center

Forecasters are watching the weather system at the lower right corner of this image.

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 2, 2008

TAMPA - A tropical wave just off the African coast could become a tropical depression in the next couple of days.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami started watching the collection of thunderstorms and low pressure just after it emerged in the Atlantic Ocean, saying on Tuesday it had the potential to become better organized.

Though it did not gain any organization Tuesday night, the wave is moving into an area of the Atlantic where conditions are favorable for development.

The wave will be moving over water that has been about 1 degree warmer than normal through most of June. Developing storms feed on warm water.

This afternoon, the wave was about 250 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands and moving west at roughly 15 mph. Its winds are just below 30 mph, about the same speed as Tuesday.

Forecasters said the wave has a 30 percent to 50 percent possibility of becoming better organized.

Forecast models are fairly uniform in turning the disturbance to the northeast before it reaches the Caribbean Sea. Most models that forecast intensity show the disturbance becoming a tropical storm but remaining below hurricane strength.

In June and July, most hurricanes form from either tropical waves or stalled fronts in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. Storms typically form from tropical waves in the Atlantic during August and September, the height of hurricane season.

Storms that form near the Cape Verde Islands are called Cape Verde storms, which track across the ocean for days.

The hurricane center said three other tropical waves show little or no sign of development. Between 70 and 80 tropical waves come off the African coast during the hurricane season, and few develop into storms.

If the wave does become the season's second tropical storm, it would be named Bertha. This morning, the wave was more than 3,000 miles from Miami.

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