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Bertha Likely To Become Season's First Hurricane

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 6, 2008

TAMPA- The season's first hurricane is likely to form by Tuesday, but Tropical Storm Bertha's track so far is taking the storm away from Florida.

On Sunday, Bertha had winds of about 50 mph and was zipping along to the west at about 20 mph, cruising along the southern edge of an area of high pressure to the storm's north.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect Bertha to begin taking a more northwest path on Tuesday or Wednesday but they do not know if the storm will curve enough to avoid land. None of the models take Bertha into the Caribbean Sea.

The models do not portray a low pressure area forming ahead of the storm that would push it north and away from the coast.

Though forecasters are not overly confident of their intensity outlook, most models have the storm becoming a Category 1 hurricane with winds of about 80 mph by the middle of the week and maintaining that strength until Friday.

As Bertha heads west, the storm will move over continually warmer water and forecasters said shear, which can destroy a storm or stunt its growth, will be low, at least for the next few days.

Forecasters said it is too early to tell if Bertha will hit land or curve to the north before reaching the coast.

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