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In Florida, Multiple Political Battlegrounds Take Shape

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By BILLY HOUSE

The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 7, 2008

WASHINGTON - Florida's status as a key battleground state this fall won't be limited to presidential politics.

Democratic national campaign strategists say their party can wage competitive races for at least five U.S. House seats now held by Florida Republicans, and that a sixth good Democratic challenge could emerge in the Tampa Bay area.

That's a bundle of congressional seats from one state to be up for grabs.

Twenty-four other states don't even have six congressional seats.

GOP strategists in Washington, still smarting from losing two House seats in Florida in 2006 as part of a nationwide meltdown that cost their party majority control of the chamber, are not exactly disputing the Democratic claims.

But they are taking steps to defend and keep intact the 16 to 9 congressional seat edge Republicans still enjoy in Florida, and possibly even take back a conservative-leaning district now held by a freshman Democrat.

"Florida will be a hotbed for campaign activity this fall, but in the end, Republican incumbents will be re-elected and Democrats will be a seat short," predicts Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Campaign Committee.

Kyra Jennings of the Democratic National Campaign Committee says such GOP optimism overlooks that "there are many races in Florida that provide great opportunities for Democratic pickups."

To nonpartisan political analysts, both scenarios are possible.

That uncertainty, and thus the focus this year on Florida congressional seats, can be traced to the way the state went about its congressional redistricting in 2002, explained David Wasserman, a U.S. House race expert with the Cook Political Report.

"Republicans spread themselves too thin in Florida - a lot of their seats are in districts that are only marginally Republican," Wasserman said.

The result, he said, is that a decisive victory this fall at the top of the Democratic ticket by Barack Obama could trickle down into several Democratic pickups in Florida congressional districts in South Central Florida, the Interstate 4 corridor and South Florida.

A win by Republican presidential hopeful John McCain could avert that, helping Republicans keep what they have and even regain a lost seat.

There are four months to go until the November elections, and unexpected local events can shake up individual races.

But here's a roadmap to what are likely to be top congressional battlegrounds this fall in Florida, according to party strategists and nonpartisan political analysts.

16th Congressional District

This South Central Florida district leans Republican, but is now represented by freshman Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney.

He finds himself the top state target of House Republicans.

Mahoney, a millionaire and business executive from Palm Beach Gardens, may have helped to assure that place in the GOP crosshairs with his penchant for off-the-cuff, blunt language about his disdain for Washington and aspects of his job.

Republicans also have been quick to jump on miscues, such as Mahoney's staff recently sending out a leaflet titled "Honoring Those Who Defend Our Freedom." Trouble was, the cover photo of an elderly man wearing war medals was actually that of a former Soviet soldier, an oversight made during production of the flier.

Mahoney would have been targeted regardless, because Republicans consider his election to the seat in 2006 a fluke.

He took the seat formally held by GOP Rep. Mark Foley, who resigned in disgrace just a little more than a month before the election.

Mahoney's seat is one of two in Florida in which Wasserman has a race only "leaning" the incumbent's way as of now, as opposed to "likely" to go the incumbent's way, or "solidly" in control by the incumbent.

Tom Rooney, a lawyer and Army veteran who is a member of the family that owns the Pittsburgh Steelers football team, appears to be the early front-runner among three Republicans vying in the Aug. 26 GOP primary for the chance to challenge Mahoney.

24th Congressional District

The seat held by Republican Tom Feeney of Oviedo is the top Florida target this fall for Democrats.

Feeney is the only other U.S. House seat from Florida rated by Wasserman as merely "leaning" the incumbent's way.

The three-term congressman and former speaker of the Florida House faces a well-funded challenge from former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. In addition, he continues to be dogged by Democratic attacks for taking a 2003 golf trip to Scotland with former-super-lobbyist-now-inmate Jack Abramoff.

The U.S. House announced last year that Feeney had violated its rules by letting Abramoff pay for the trip. Feeney has explained that he thought a conservative think tank had paid for it, but agreed to pay $5,643 to the U.S. Treasury as reimbursement.

In a sign of how deeply Republicans in Washington may be worried about Feeney's chances this fall, they placed his name on their "Regain Our Majority Program," known as ROMP, a list of incumbents that the party's leaders in Washington fear are vulnerable and who will receive extra help from the national party, including through an upcoming fundraiser in Washington.

Cuban-American Incumbents

GOP worries about their House seats in Florida extend to two South Florida Cuban-American congressmen, both of whom are on the GOP's ROMP list of incumbents needing extra help.

Mario Diaz-Balart and Lincoln Diaz-Balart face what could be their toughest re-elections for their 25th Congressional District seat and 21st Congressional District seat respectively.

Wasserman rates Lincoln Diaz-Balart's seat as "leaning" Republican and his brother's seat as "likely" to stay Republican. But the Diaz-Balart brothers, like the state's other Cuban-American member of the House, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of the Miami-area's 18th Congressional District, may be dealing with shifting voter demographics.

Florida political analysts and pollsters say younger Cubans are less likely than their aging elders to automatically vote Republican and support candidates like the Diaz-Balarts and Ros-Lehtinen who hold a harder line regarding U.S. relations with Cuba.

It is unlikely all three could lose this fall. But Mario Diaz-Balart will have to fend off a challenge from Joe Garcia, the former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation. And Lincoln Diaz-Balart must square off against popular former Hialeah mayor Raúl Martínez.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Democratic strategists in Washington have placed both races on their "Red to Blue" program, a list of districts they view as their best chances to pick up seats. Ros-Lehtinen faces a challenge from businesswoman Annette Taddeo in a race that Democrats have put on their list of "emerging races" that are not yet considered fully competitive, but could be.

13th Congressional District

The district, which runs from just below Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor, is represented by freshman Vern Buchanan, another Republican whose name is on the GOP's ROMP list of candidates seen as needing extra help from Washington.

The Democrats, likewise, have placed the district in their "Red to Blue" program.

That race will give Sarasota Democrat Christine Jennings a second shot at Buchanan, who defeated her by just 369 votes in what was an open-seat race in 2006.

Since then, the rivalry has only grown more intense, as Jennings has spent much of the time since challenging the result, claiming that malfunctioning touch-screen voting machines may have caused as many as 18,000 votes to go uncounted.

Wasserman has the race as "likely" in Buchanan's favor.

8th Congressional District

Represented by Republican Ric Keller, the 8th Congressional District also is seen as potentially competitive. He is on the "ROMP" list, and even faces a GOP primary challenge from Todd Long.

The four-term congressman who represents parts of Orlando and surrounding Orange County won the general election in 2006 with 53 percent of the vote against Democrat Charlie Stuart, who is running again in a Democratic primary. Wasserman rates the race as "leaning" to the Republican.

9th Congressional District

Democrats in Washington last month declared the campaign for the Tampa Bay area's 9th Congressional District seat held by GOP freshman Gus Bilirakis of Palm Harbor as also among its "20 emerging races in the country."

In doing so, the party said former Plant City Mayor John Dicks was among Democratic candidates nationally who "have generated excitement in their districts for their campaigns of change." The Democratic leadership did so even though Dicks must first get past his primary rivals, Bill Mitchell of Carrollwood and Anita de Palma of Clearwater.

Wasserman rates the district as "likely" in the Republican incumbent's control.

Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662-7673 or bhouse@tampatrib.com.

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