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Rush To Florida Slows To Trickle
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Published: July 11, 2008
TAMPA - For years, Tampa Bay welcomed thousands of new residents who fueled a frenetic real estate climate and one of the fastest-growing job markets in the country.
Those days seem long-gone now.
A U.S. Census report released Thursday shows population growth from 2006 to 2007 has slowed considerably for many of Florida's municipalities, including Tampa.
It's a trend some economists predict will continue through 2010.
Chris Lafakis, an associate economist with Moody's Economy.com, said Florida's economy tends to be one of extremes. "When times are good, it's one of the best. When times are bad, it's one of the worst."
Florida had six of the 25 fastest-shrinking cities with populations of 100,000 or more. The biggest Bay-area entry on that list was Clearwater, which ranked 16th with a drop from 107,493 in 2006 to 106,642 in 2007, a decrease of about 0.8 percent.
Tampa grew by about 0.7 percent, up about 2,500 people to 336,823.
Rafaela Amador-Carlisle, director of public policy at the Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce, attributed the continued growth amid tough economic times to the city's diverse business community and its still-affordable housing.
"It's like a stock portfolio," she said. "You have to diversify ... so the lows are not so low and the highs are not so high."
South Florida saw some of the biggest losses, with Broward County home to three of the fastest-shrinking populations. Hollywood came in at No. 3 with a 1.4 percent drop.
Demographers, economists and city leaders say reasons for the sputtering growth are easy to identify: a national housing slump and record job losses, especially from the construction and housing industry.
But don't rule out the short-term impact of hurricanes, something that can influence an economic forecast, Lafakis said.
According to the U.S. census, New Orleans had the largest rate of population loss since 2000 and turned around as the fastest-growing large city in the nation after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Florida certainly has experienced all of the above.
"Clearly, our growth is not as strong," said Scott Cody, a demographer with the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.
The bureau tracks the state's annual growth beginning in April. So far, Florida is on track for close to 1 percent growth in 2007, Cody said. While that's a big change from the boom years, it's important to note the state is still growing, he said.
"When you compare Florida's growth to other states', even at our lowest it's still high," he said. "We're just used to being one of the fastest growing."
All of Pasco County's six incorporated cities grew slightly, with New Port Richey the frontrunner with 198 more residents calling the city home.
"But you can't look at our cities," said Mary Jane Stanley, president of the Pasco County Economic Development Council. "Ninety percent of the county is unincorporated."
Instead, Stanley eyes the whole county's growth as well as the rising unemployment rate and number of housing permits. Those numbers aren't encouraging: The county issued more than 8,500 permits in 2005 but only about 900 from January to May of this year.
Of the 24 incorporated municipalities in Pinellas County, only one saw growth - Tarpon Springs, with an increase of 368 residents between 2006 and 2007. Belleair Shore remained constant with 75 folks each year.
It didn't surprise Clearwater Councilman John Doran that his home wasn't growing.
"We're built out," he said.
Doran pointed to housing costs that have remained relatively high in Pinellas County, particularly Clearwater, and a decrease in incomes.
Many people are finding more affordable communities, he said. Some, nicknamed "half-backs," are retiring from the North to Florida only to pack up for Georgia or the Carolinas, where living expenses might be cheaper.
A self-proclaimed Hoosier by birth, Floridian by choice, Doran has lived in Clearwater Beach since 1983.
"And I have no intention of leaving," he said.
Among Florida cities with populations of 100,000 or more in 2007, Port St. Lucie with a 6.3 percent increase and Palm Bay with a 2.9 percent increase ranked seventh and 25th respectively in the country for fastest growing.
Miami saw an increase of 2.5 percent, ranking 18th for U.S. cities with the largest numerical increase.
The annual census report is based on housing unit estimates that use building permits, construction data and other information. To view the report, go to www.census.gov/ popest/estimates.php.
Reporter Sherri Ackerman can be reached at sackerman@tampatrib.com.
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